Hello everyone, I am Penny.
BitMine has been increasing its Ethereum holdings since July 1, adding to become the world's largest ETH treasury in 35 days, and continues to do so in recent days. Currently, the total position is about $6.607 billion, with an average cost of $3,840 ~ $3,950, which are key zones for ETH's medium to long-term support and pressure.
As the world's largest ETH stockholder, BitMine's continuous aggressive accumulation may lead to a supply crunch in the market, thus driving prices up. Today, Penny will analyze whether the target of $10,000 to $12,000 for ETH by year-end is valid from the perspectives of predictive logic, on-chain supply and demand, and how retail investors can layout in advance.
1. ETH will rise again in 'a few weeks', with an end-of-year target of $12,000.
Recently, Tom Lee (Chairman of BitMine) stated in several media interviews that he expects Ethereum (ETH) to rise to $5,500 in 'a few weeks' and possibly reach $10,000 to $12,000 by the end of 2025.
Logic behind the prediction
Lee emphasized that Ethereum is becoming the preferred blockchain platform for Wall Street institutions, and with the influx of institutional funds, ETFs, and corporate funds, ETH is currently severely undervalued.
Media BlockBeats from the US also believes that the fourth quarter is often a period of significant market volatility. If this year is to achieve around a 200% annual increase, the fourth quarter will be a critical stage.
Media like Cointelegraph further quoted Fundstrat's analysis, stating that ETH is 'the largest macro trading opportunity' for the next 10–15 years, and noted that under policy promotion, ETH may rise to $12,000–15,000 by year-end.
2. On-chain supply and demand structure analysis
1. Total circulating supply
As of August 26, 2025, the total supply of Ethereum is approximately 120.71 million ETH, nearly unchanged from the previous day, and has increased by about 0.34% from a year ago.
2. Staking and Locking
Currently, over 30 million ETH is staked (locked), accounting for a proportion of the total supply, making the freely tradable ETH in the market less than one-third.
Companies and institutions (such as corporate treasuries) have already staked
2.73 million ETH are held through liquid staking protocols like Lido, with the total locked value (TVL) in Lido reaching $42.5 billion. These trends indicate that the circulating supply of ETH in the market is limited, possessing a certain scarcity advantage.
3. Exchange Holdings
The ETH reserves on exchanges have dropped to below 13 million ETH (equivalent to levels in 2016). This has further exacerbated the tension in trading liquidity and may also provide support for prices.
4. On-chain trading activity
According to Axios Crypto, recently ETH has been massively hoarded by institutions (such as Bitmine Immersion Technologies and Sharplink Gaming). As of mid-August, these companies have accumulated close to 2% of the total supply, with a single announcement reaching 317,000 ETH.
At the same time, Ethereum's on-chain trading volume has surged to approximately $13 billion, approaching historical highs.
3. Current layout strategy suggestions
1. Trend following vs gradual layout
Trend followers: ETH is strengthening against BTC, and the on-chain circulation volume is decreasing, which is indeed favorable for the trend. If you tend to follow the trend, you might consider maintaining a moderate long position.
Gradual layout investors: ETH has risen significantly from its low, and there is a risk of a technical correction in the short term. Retail investors are more suited to build positions gradually/reinforce gradually to reduce the risk of 'chasing high.'
2. Focus on key support/resistance
Key support level: ETH is currently oscillating in the range of $4,400–4,600, which is an important support level recently. If it breaks below, it may test $4,000–4,200.
Key resistance level: The upward pressure is at$5,000–5,200, breaking through may significantly strengthen market sentiment.
👉 It is recommended to set astop-loss line, to avoid emotional trading.
3. Position and capital management
Position suggestion: Retail investors have limited funds and should not be fully invested; they can maintain a core position of 30–50%, with the remaining funds flexible to respond to fluctuations.
Long-term vs short-term:
Long-term bullish on the ETH ecosystem (DeFi, L2, staking) can maintain a core position without change.
Short-term traders can take advantage of fluctuations, buying high and selling low within support/resistance ranges.
