According to analysis from expert Maartunn on on-chain, a new report on "Whale Flow (30-day moving average)" from CryptoQuant for the XRP Ledger shows a new distribution from large holders. Sharing the chart, he summarizes the signal on X:

"XRP whales are selling heavily. It's a clear distribution. On-chain data tells a story. We believe in the data."

XRP Whales Sell Millions of USD

The dataset analyzes the activities of large whale groups into positive and negative whale flows, then smooths it with a 30-day moving average to reduce noise. In the latest chart, the frequency chart is dominated by deep and prolonged negative columns, a clear signal of cash flow withdrawing from whale groups rather than accumulating.

This moment coincides with the price action: after XRP spiked above $1 at the end of December 2024 and accelerated to around $3.40 by mid-January 2025, the 30-day moving average of whale flow turned clearly negative.

Throughout February to March 2025, the negative trend continued deeper, with the smoothed net flow bottoming at -60 million to -70 million XRP, one of the lowest levels on the chart in years.

Strong distribution only slightly reduces temporarily. From April to June 2025, the 30-day moving average of Whale Flow shifted to a positive state for about three months, peaking at +10 million to +20 million XRP. Importantly, this recovery coincided with a price drop: the price fell below $2.00 in April, then fluctuated strongly between ~ $2.00 and a high of ~ $2.60 until the end of June.

It was when XRP regained around $2.60 in mid-July that the negative histogram chart returned, and by August, the net cash flow had returned to around -40 million to -50 million XRP. Meanwhile, the price had risen back above $2.60 in mid-July and skyrocketed to a new high of $3.66 by the end of the month. While XRP stabilized at $3, the 30-day moving average of Whale Flow remained negative at -40 million XRP.

Two notable structural points are drawn from this chain. First, heavy losses at the beginning of Q1 2025 concentrated right after the price suddenly surged from around $1.00 to above $3.00 at the end of 2024/beginning of 2025, consistent with taking significant profits and supply returning to the market as the price momentum continued.

Second, the time frame maintaining a single positive cash flow—from April to June—repeats the period when market prices weakened below $2.00 and failed to maintain upward price momentum past around $2.60, indicating that whale investors are less likely to distribute in a weak market and tend to increase or at least reduce selling pressure during stabilization. The strong return of negative cash flow after the price surpassed around $2.60 in mid-July supports Maartunn's description of a "new distribution."

As always, there are still warnings. The whale flow method mainly aggregates transfers from large addresses and cannot fully distinguish between internal exchange activity, rebalancing custody units, or OTC payments from selling trend activity.

And a smoothed 30-day period will create a delay: a strong behavioral change in whales will take time to manifest. However, the magnitude and persistence of negative columns—around -70 million/-80 million XRP at the lowest in Q1, sliding to -40 million XRP in August—has tilted the balance of evidence towards a market still absorbing supply from large holders.

Currently, the on-chain image is quite simple: organizations with large balances remain a net supply on a smooth basis. If this trend continues, maintaining the trend may require gradually reducing negative cash flow to neutral/positive levels or require external supply and demand to absorb the surplus. As Maartunn said, "It's a clear distribution... On-chain data will tell a story."

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