According to analysis from expert Maartunn on on-chain, a new report on "Whale Flow (30-day moving average)" from CryptoQuant for XRP Ledger shows a new distribution from large holders. Sharing the chart, he summarizes the signal on X:

"XRP whales are selling heavily. It's a clear distribution. On-chain data tells a story. We trust the data."

XRP Whales Sold Millions of USD

The dataset analyzes the activities of large whale groups into positive and negative whale flows, then smooths it using a 30-day moving average to reduce noise. On the latest chart, the frequency chart is dominated by deep and prolonged negative columns, a clear signal of cash flow being withdrawn from whale groups rather than accumulating.

This moment coincides with price action: after XRP surged above $1 at the end of December 2024 and accelerated to around $3.40 in mid-January 2025, the 30-day moving average of whale flow clearly turned negative.

Throughout February to March 2025, the negative trend continued deeper, with the smoothed net flow bottoming at -60 million to -70 million XRP, one of the lowest levels on the chart in years.

Strong distribution only slightly decreased temporarily. From April to June 2025, the 30-day moving average of Whale Flow shifted to a positive state for about three months, peaking at +10 million to +20 million XRP. Importantly, this recovery coincided with a price drop: the price fell below $2.00 in April, then fluctuated strongly between ~ $2.00 and a high of ~ $2.60 until the end of June.

Only when XRP regained around $2.60 in mid-July did the negative histogram chart return, and in August, the net cash flow returned to around -40 million to -50 million XRP. Meanwhile, the price has risen back above $2.60 in mid-July and surged to a new high of $3.66 by the end of the month. While XRP stabilized at $3, the 30-day moving average of Whale Flow remained negative at -40 million XRP.

Two notable structural points are drawn from this chain. First, heavy losses in early Q1 2025 concentrated right after the price suddenly surged from around $1.00 above $3.00 at the end of 2024/start of 2025, consistent with taking large profits and supply returning to the market as the price rally extended.

Second, the timeframe maintaining a single positive cash flow—from April to June—repeats the period when market prices weakened below $2.00 and could not sustain upward momentum past around $2.60, suggesting that whale investors are less inclined to distribute into a weak market and tend to increase or at least reduce selling pressure during stabilization. The strong return of negative cash flow after the price surpassed around $2.60 in mid-July supports Maartunn's description of a "new distribution."

As usual, there are still warnings. The whale flow method primarily aggregates transfer transactions from large addresses and cannot fully distinguish between internal exchange activities, rebalancing custodial units, or OTC payments from selling trends.

And a smooth 30-day period will create a lag: a strong behavioral change in whales will take time to manifest. However, the size and persistence of the negative columns—near −70 million/−80 million XRP at the lowest in Q1, sliding to −40 million XRP in August—has tilted the evidence scale towards a market still absorbing supply from large holders.

Currently, the on-chain picture is quite simple: organizations with large balances remain net supply on a smoothed basis. If this trend continues, maintaining the trend may require gradually reducing negative cash flow to a neutral/positive level or require sufficient external supply and demand to absorb the surplus. As Maartunn said, "It's a clear distribution... On-chain data will tell a story."

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