1. Summary

$PENGU Short-term bias cautiously neutral → slightly bearish — price is accumulating near short-term MA but facing resistance from long-term MA; on-chain whale inflows are a risk factor.

• Current price ≈ $0.0309; nearest peak ~0.03699, action bottom ~0.02884.

• Catalyst: tokenomics & NFT-tie create a fundamental base but recent whale → exchange transfers may cause short-term sell-off.

2. Analysis

1H structure: MA7 ~ MA25 and RSI ~50 → neutral momentum; price is below MA99 (~0.0328) so rallies are often blocked. On-chain: many large token transfers to exchanges in the past week — selling signal from whales; fundamentals (tokenomics, NFT utility) still support a medium-long term view but not enough to negate short-term liquidation risks.

3. Strategy

  • Entry (Conservative): Buy cautiously if 4H closes > 0.0328 with confirming volume (confirming break of MA99).

  • Entry (Aggressive): Buy on-dip at 0.0288–0.0300 when 1H has clear rejection (pin/bar + increased buying volume).

  • Stop-loss: SL = 0.0278 (below the action bottom to avoid false break).

  • TP1 / TP2: TP1 = 0.0365–0.0372 (nearest peak), TP2 = 0.045 (extended target if breakout holds with volume).

  • Exit triggers: large transfers into CEX/whale sell-off; 4H close below 0.0285 → cut all; if there are negative ETF/NFT news or unusual team wallet movement, consider exiting early.