Recently, I've been a bit dazed while watching the market — this 'repeated tugging' of altcoins is exactly like the first half of the 2017 bull market.
Every day when I open the market, I can encounter 'surprises': just this morning, I saw someone in the group shouting 'XX coin is surging! It's up 25% today, doubling is right around the corner,' and they attached a bunch of bullish technical charts. By the afternoon, when I opened my eyes, the K-line had plunged like a waterfall, and those who chased in suddenly went silent in the group; when asked, they were all deeply trapped. I hear 'the altcoin season is coming' every day, but each time it's 'the wolf is coming' — it can rise for a day and drop for three days. A friend chased three times and got trapped each time, finally getting so angry that they didn't want to open the trading software.
I clearly remember the altcoin tricks from 2017: back then, BTC surged, making people envious, while altcoins fluctuated wildly, rising a bit today and dropping back tomorrow. Every time it seemed like it was about to break through, it would end up retreating after a spike. After several rounds of this, many said, 'Forget it, I'm not dealing with altcoins anymore,' and just a few days later, all the altcoins flew together. The current rhythm is really too similar to back then.
A few days ago, I specifically checked on-chain data and found something interesting — those old whales holding more than 10,000 BTC have been particularly active recently. Many established addresses have transferred BTC to exchanges and, after converting to ETH, are also buying mainstream altcoins like SOL, ADA, and DOT in small batches.
This is not 'being bearish on BTC' at all; anyone with clear eyes can see it's 'switching positions to earn rotational money.' Think about it, BTC has been swaying around $110,000-$120,000 for quite a while, and the momentum to push higher in the short term is clearly weak; but ETH is different, with spot ETFs bringing in funds every day, and L2 and DeFi becoming increasingly lively; mainstream altcoins have also adjusted previously, and their prices aren't high — the whales are positioning themselves in advance, waiting for the next wave of funds to flow to these places.
This logic is almost the same as in 2017: back then, BTC first peaked, institutions and large funds withdrew from BTC, pushing ETH from $300 to $1400, and then altcoins collectively exploded, with many small coins multiplying 5-10 times in half a month. Now, there are new elements like the ETH ecosystem and ETFs, and the signals are even clearer.
But retail investors are particularly prone to pitfalls at this stage. I have friends around me who have fallen: either they chase as soon as they see altcoins rising, getting trapped at the 'baiting peak' every time, and when they cut losses, it just happens to be the short-term bottom; or they are repeatedly ground down and lose confidence, simply liquidating their positions, and then when altcoins truly start to move, they don't dare to enter, only able to watch others make money — too many people lost this way in 2017.
Actually, there's no need to rush to buy altcoins now. My method is to first filter the targets: those that only shout concepts and have no usable products are directly passed; focus on those with real products, like those with many users in L2 or stable locked amounts in DeFi, ideally with a market cap between 1-10 billion, so they are neither too stable with no space, nor too crazy and likely to crash.
Then it's about buying in small batches, don't rush in at short-term highs, wait for a pullback and then enter with a small position. Never go in all at once, otherwise short-term fluctuations can trap you. The key is to endure the 'fake-out period' — whales transfer money from BTC to ETH, then spread it to altcoins; how can it happen so quickly? There will definitely be repeated twists and turns in between. The current torment is actually the preparation before the storm.
Ultimately, the strategies of this bull market's altcoins are too similar to 2017: first relying on BTC to build the framework for the bull market, then letting ETH attract some funds, and finally it's the turn of altcoins to ignite everyone's frenzy. The current repeated 'baiting' and whales quietly switching positions are all building momentum for a subsequent explosion — often, the real opportunity comes when everyone is ground down to 'not believing the altcoin season will come.'
Don't let short-term fluctuations disrupt your rhythm; prepare in advance so that when the altcoin season truly starts, you can seize it steadily. Have you felt this way while watching the market recently? Or do you have promising altcoin targets? Let's discuss them in the comments~
