【Market Stage Assessment: Is it really the 'tail end' of the bull market?】
Recently, many opinions suggest that the market has entered the final stage of the bull market, claiming that major holders are continuously offloading, with only Ethereum leading altcoins for a final surge. I personally have some differing views on this:
First, from the perspective of market stage characteristics, the end of a bull market is usually accompanied by strong FOMO emotions and irrational chasing of prices, but the current market sentiment has not reached this level; secondly, several long-term indicators do not align with typical bull tail movements, and the cycle dimension has not yet supported this conclusion. Furthermore, due to the lagging effects of large-scale liquidity injections from the previous cycle, this bull market is likely to last longer than simply projected by time—one cannot simply 'carve a boat to seek a sword'. Therefore, I believe the market has not yet entered the tail end of the bull market.
【Funding Trends and When Will the 'Altcoin Season' Arrive?】
From the funding perspective, fluctuations in the market around the time of rate cuts are very normal, and I also plan to seize wave opportunities in the near term. Unlike before, this round of incoming funds includes a significant amount of traditional institutional investors—'old money' is more focused on asset allocation and hedging risks when entering cryptocurrencies. Their operations are more long-term and rational, usually starting with steady accumulation of BTC and ETH, and then gradually evaluating other tokens, rather than blindly rushing into altcoins. Therefore, a comprehensive 'altcoin season' may still take time to brew, and it is advisable to continue monitoring changes in leverage.
After the speculation around interest rate cuts has subsided, it will still take time for the Federal Reserve to actually initiate rate cuts and for funds to flow into the market, which provides a window for these types of institutions to allocate their assets. On the other hand, during the interest rate cut cycle, the U.S. is more likely to support the development of Crypto—the expanding stablecoin market and crypto assets will become important potential buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds. This means that medium- to long-term fund inflows will continue after the rate cuts.
【Market Outlook and Operational Thoughts】
The judgment on the upcoming trend is as follows:
About a month before and after the rate cuts, BTC is likely to enter a wide range of fluctuations, with a potential downward test below 100,000. If it retraces to this level, it will present a good opportunity for bottom-fishing, after which it is expected to restart an upward trend. ETH will adjust alongside BTC; if it can drop below 4000, it will also be worth focusing on.
I think whether ETH can break through 10,000 USD, perhaps no one believes it now, but in the midst of a cycle, anything is possible!
Do you think the bull market is still ongoing?
