1. Project Positioning and Technical Architecture
Bitlayer, as the first Bitcoin Layer2 based on the BitVM paradigm, is committed to solving the scalability and programmability bottlenecks of the Bitcoin network through technological innovation. Its core architecture integrates three major breakthroughs:
- BitVM Verification Mechanism: Achieving a Rollup architecture equivalent to security without relying on Bitcoin mainnet upgrades, supporting transaction proof anchored to Bitcoin blocks;
- Decentralized Cross-chain Bridge: Using Discreet Log Contract (DLC) framework to build a trustless bidirectional cross-chain bridge, ensuring the secure migration of BTC assets;
- RtEVM Execution Environment: Compatible with Ethereum EVM, allowing developers to seamlessly migrate Solidity smart contracts, reducing ecological migration costs.
After the mainnet goes live in April 2024, on-chain transaction volume will exceed 71 million, with a peak TVL of $900 million, remaining at the top of the DefiLlama Bitcoin L2 rankings for the long term.
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2. Financing Strength and Institutional Endorsement
Bitlayer has raised a total of $25 million, with a valuation of $300 million, and investment coverage includes top institutions:
- Lead Investors: Polychain Capital, Franklin Templeton (A+ round);
- Strategic Support: OKX Ventures (early layout), StarkWare, ABCDE, etc.;
- Public Offering Channels: CoinList (covering nearly 20,000 users) and GoMining IDO, establishing a broad community foundation.
Institutional endorsement highlights the market's recognition of its technical roadmap, especially the innovativeness of BitVM in Bitcoin scalability.
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3. Token Economic Model and Initial Circulation
Token Distribution and Unlocking
BTR total supply of 1 billion pieces, initial circulation of 261.6 million pieces (26.16%), distribution ratio as follows:
| Category | Proportion | Initial Unlock Ratio |
|----------------|----------|------------------|
| Ecological Incentives | 40% | 10% |
| Investors and Advisors | 20.25% | To be announced |
| Core Team | 12% | 0% (Locked) |
| Public Distribution | 11% | 8.7% |
| Node Incentives | 7.75% | Partial Release |
| Treasury | 6% | 4.5% |
| Liquidity | 3% | 3% |
Circulation Chips Analysis
- Public Offering Chips: Cost layering (U.S. investors $0.15 locked for 1 year / other regions $0.2 directly unlocked), accounting for about 2% of initial circulation;
- Activity Release: Binance Pre-TGE (2%), Booster Campaign (0.71%), Community Airdrop (about 2%) [^User Data];
- Potential Selling Pressure: Clear short-term selling pressure of about 6.7%, institutional and team chips have not yet been released, alleviating early selling pressure.
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4. Ecological Progress and Competitive Barriers
Ecological Expansion Speed
- DApp Deployment: Over 280 ecological projects covering DeFi, NFT, gaming, and RWA fields;
- Head Cooperation Cases:
→ Desyn Protocol: Yield protocol with hundreds of millions in TVL, supporting the official YBTC product (annualized 5%-8%);
→ Jasper: Bitcoin options DeFi platform, simplifying on-chain hedging needs;
→ Mining Pool Alliance: Collaborating with AntPool, F2Pool, etc., to obtain 40% Bitcoin hash power supporting BitVM verification.
Technical Roadmap
| Stage | Goal | Progress Status |
|------------|-----------------------------------|----------------|
| V1 | Basic Rollup and Cross-chain Bridge | Online (2024.4)|
| V2 | Introduce OpVM Verification Scheme | Mainnet Testing |
| V3 | Achieve Bitcoin Equivalent Security and Parallel Execution | Planned for 2025 |
Compared to traditional solutions like Lightning Network, Bitlayer balances security and EVM compatibility through BitVM, building a differentiated barrier.
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5. Risk and Opportunity Assessment
✅ Core Opportunities
1. Institutional Trend: Positioning as 'institutional-level Bitcoin financial infrastructure' to attract mining pools, asset management companies, and large BTC holders;
2. Demand for Yield Scenarios: Products like YBTC have validated on-chain yield demand (annualized 5%-8%), aligning with institutional fund allocation preferences;
3. Low Circulation Chips: Initial circulation is only 26.16%, and many active tokens have a lock-up period, suppressing early selling pressure.
⚠️ Potential Risks
1. Technical Validation Pressure: The OpVM solution for the V2 mainnet has not yet been fully implemented, and performance and security need real-world testing;
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: Global scrutiny of L2 token securities attributes may affect compliance progress;
3. Valuation Inversion: Public offering cost $0.2 > pre-market price $0.17, some unlocked chips have trapped selling pressure [^User Data].
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6. Investment Strategy Recommendations
Short-term Strategy (1-3 months after TGE)
- Focus on News-driven Momentum: Ecological cooperation (e.g., stablecoin projects), mining pool hash power growth, V2 mainnet launch, etc., are favorable or could drive prices;
- Beware of Unlocking Nodes: Closely monitor the public offering lock-up release in Q4 2025 ($0.15 cost chips) and institutional share unlocking plans;
- Technical Support: Pre-market price $0.17 close to public offering minimum cost, proceed with caution if it breaks.
Long-term Value
If Bitlayer achieves a $10 billion TVL and 5 million daily transaction volume target (roadmap), its positioning as the 'computing layer' of the Bitcoin ecosystem will drive valuation reconstruction. Long-term holders should pay attention to:
1. Ecological TVL Growth Rate;
2. Bitcoin L2 Market Share (currently ranked first by DefiLlama);
3. Scale of Institutional Fund Influx (e.g., YBTC product expansion).
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Conclusion: Bitlayer, leveraging the technological scarcity of BitVM, institutional resources, and yield scenario implementation, possesses a first-mover advantage in the Bitcoin ecosystem. In the short term, it needs to digest public offering chip pressure, and the medium to long-term growth depends on technological iteration and ecological explosive power. Below $0.17 has configuration value; batch buying on dips is recommended.
