Today, U.S. stocks rebounded slightly, and investor concerns about interest rate cuts and economic recession in September have somewhat weakened. At the same time, Trump's 'dismissal' call of Federal Reserve Governor Cook is seen more as a pressure tactic and deterrent; the possibility of direct dismissal without concrete evidence is extremely low.

Investing has been difficult in the past two years, the key lies in judging the overall trend. Even if one can grasp the main trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, many altcoins still move independently: small rises when the market is up, large drops when the market is down, each market segment 'sings its own tune.'

Market liquidation data

In the past 24 hours, a total of 83,196 people have been liquidated across the network, with a total amount of about $271 million.

Long position liquidation: $128 million

Short position liquidation: $143 million

It can be seen that the recent futures market has experienced mutual destruction of bulls and bears, with the operators profiting from the 'liquidation harvest.' Compared to the spot market, which often requires a 50% fluctuation, the futures market can achieve huge profits with just a 5% price fluctuation.

Bitcoin (BTC) Market Tracking

Current Price: $110,956.07

Intraday High: $112,371.00

Intraday Low: $109,393.93

24-hour decline: -0.72%

Market Analysis

Trend: Bitcoin has recently continued to weaken, fluctuating between $109,000–112,000 after falling from historical highs. The moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and MACD bearish momentum still dominates the market. Although it briefly broke through $112,000 in the early morning, it failed to hold, indicating insufficient bullish strength.

Key Position:

Support: 108,000–109,000 (breaking could pull back to 107,000).

Resistance: 112,000–113,000 (lingering difficulty will intensify the pullback).

Reason analysis:

Profit-taking pressure, previous rapid increase.

Capital flow to Ethereum: $3.3 billion net inflow into ETH ETF in August, while over $1 billion was redeemed from BTC.

Macroeconomic policy remains unclear, the market is still observing.

Operational Suggestions

Short-term short position: If it rebounds to 112,000–113,000, you can lay out a small position, stop loss at 500 points, target below 109,000.

Short-term long position: Try when it retraces to around 108,000, stop loss at 500 points, target 110,000.

Ethereum (ETH) Market Tracking

Current Price: $4,555.25

Intraday High: $4,633.46

Intraday Low: $4,390.71

24-hour decline: -0.98%

Market Analysis

Technical aspect: Short-term bulls and bears are fierce, the 4-hour chart briefly broke 4600 but fell back under pressure. The current price hovers around the middle band of Bollinger Bands, with EMA15/30 clearly repressing. Trading volume has shrunk, and the basis for rebound is not solid.

MACD: Bearish momentum weakening.

RSI: 54, neutral.

KDJ: Bottom golden cross, bulls still have a chance.

Key Position:

Support: 4350–4400

Resistance: 4620–4650 (if effectively broken, can approach 4900)

Operational Suggestions

Altcoins and Extreme Events

This morning, the XPL token on the decentralized perpetual contract platform Hyperliquid skyrocketed 200% in 5 minutes, triggering a short squeeze:

Whale account opened a 3x leveraged long position with $16 million USDC, directly sweeping away sell orders.

XPL surged from $0.6 to $1.8, causing $38 million in shorts to be liquidated.

Whale liquidated positions at a high, with cumulative profits of $38 million.

Ordinary retail investors suffered heavy losses, 1x leverage hedgers were liquidated in minutes, evaporating $2.5 million.

This once again warns: High leverage + low liquidity = a breeding ground for capital manipulation.

Investment insights: Do not 'hold dead' in spot trading

In this bull market, BTC rose from $15,000 to $130,000–150,000, with an expected increase of about 10 times; however, from the previous high of 69,000, it is only about 2 times.

2017: 3,000 → 19,000 (≈6 times)

2021: 3,000 → 69,000 (≈23 times, or 3.6 times from 19k)

2025: 15,000 → 150,000 (≈10 times, approximately 2 times from 69k)

Altcoin trends are similar:

Hundredfold coins emerged frequently in 2017

The mainstream in 2021 was tenfold coins

This round of excellent altcoins is expected to be tenfold, junk altcoins only 2–3 times

Retail investors often find it difficult to accurately pick quality targets, so the risk of 'holding onto altcoins' is extremely high.

The conclusion is very realistic:

Do not hold dead in spot trading, setting profit-taking for altcoins at 2–3 times is more reasonable

Don't be a 'long-term' investor, be a rational 'playboy'

The FOMO rhetoric shouting '200,000, 300,000' in a bull market will eventually collapse; risk control and profit-taking are the true wealth codes.