Dogecoin's short-term uptrend may be stalling, but cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) warns that a collapse has begun and the meme coin's upward trend now depends on a fragile support band around $0.20. In a live broadcast on August 25, Kevin argued that DOGE's structure has weakened into a trap after a typical bullish run, while its fate still depends on Bitcoin's next move.

Dogecoin bulls are being pushed into a corner.

'This market doesn't really decide its own fate. It will follow what Bitcoin and ETH do, mainly Bitcoin,' he said, adding that the pattern attracting attention on his screen is 'a symmetrical triangle... not an uptrend after a crash. It's a downtrend. Typically it will break out', a process he said is happening during the live broadcast.

In his view, current resistance levels are simply harsh. Above, 'the main resistance level... remains unchanged', with the golden resistance area still at $0.285–$0.261. This range has limited sudden bullish moves since the beginning of the year and, along with higher Fibonacci levels—0.703 around $0.329 and 0.786 around $0.413—defines the ceiling that bulls have continuously failed to convincingly break through.

On the downside, Kevin marks the range from $0.195–$0.189 as 'the key support area', aligning with the Fibonacci 0.5 around ~0.189 with DOGE's MA lines. 'Currently, the price is supported through the 100-day and 200-day EMA', he notes, while pointing out the 200-day SMA near ~0.198 and a bullish channel that has seen 'many touches at the highs and lows'.

He warns that if it loses around $0.19–$0.20, the least obstructed path will quickly shift downward: 'If Dogecoin loses that area, it will likely return to the trend line... at any price level from 16 cents', with deeper old support levels around $0.147, $0.137, and 'the area from $0.14–$0.127' described as 'an important support level.'

In other words, the risk of a 'collapse' that Kevin warns about is not related to an impressive price target but to the mechanical structure of DOGE if the price drops to $0.19: first, the gap below the channel near $0.16, next, previous demand will decrease if momentum accelerates.

The context is very important, and Kevin emphasizes that the beta DOGE is mainly affected by overall market factors in cryptocurrency. When Bitcoin rises while Bitcoin's dominance decreases, DOGE can explode — 'Dogecoin had a special trading day' last Friday, he said, pointing to an increase of about 11–12% when BTC rose ~3.5% and dominance dropped more than 0.7%. But 'if ETH performs better and is in ETH season, you won't see Dogecoin rise sharply', he warns, explaining the reason why DOGE has been stagnant while major coins related to Ethereum and ETH beta coins have led the cash flow in recent months.

Therefore, Kevin's strategic roadmap is very clear. First, consider the threshold of $0.195–$0.189 as the boundary between a controlled pullback and a chaotic trend line test. Second, accept that bullish momentum may be limited below $0.285–$0.261 until Bitcoin rises and sustainable dominance decreases. Third, avoid the classic liquidity trap of buying when the price suddenly rises due to emotions at resistance levels. 'Don't buy altcoins at high prices', he says. 'Allocate into altcoins at key support levels', and do it gradually, with a risk-aware mindset rather than overextending when prices drop.

Expert evaluations of Dogecoin are quite honest and timely. The triangle following the bullish trend has started to break; the price range from $0.19–$0.20 is 'a lifeline'. If the price holds, DOGE could stabilize in the bullish channel while waiting for a more favorable price correction led by Bitcoin. If the price drops, 'a collapse' as defined by Kevin – a rise to around $0.16 and, if pressure continues, will be the support threshold at a single-digit level.

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