Summary

$NEAR Short-term bias: cautious–bullish — 1H momentum is shifting positively but price has not clearly closed above MA99; need breakout with volume to be reliable.

• Main catalyst: roadmap update / Nightshade scaling and recent reward/reward tranche announcements.

• On-chain/token: vesting/unlock is still a short-term supply factor, monitor transfers → CEX/inflows may create selling pressure.

Analysis

Above 1H MA7 ~2.526 has surpassed MA25 ~2.475, but the price is currently slightly below MA99 (~2.573) — structure shows short-term momentum favors bulls but is not enough for a convincing reversal; volume has not exploded so any breakout needs to be confirmed with large volume bars. Fundamentally, NEAR benefits from technical progress (scaling roadmap) and reward programs, but the vesting/unlocking schedule and token flow may cause short-term supply volatility.

Strategy

  • Entry: Buy probe if 1H candle closes > 2.58 (close above MA99 with confirming volume) — or buy on probe when clear rejection at 2.42–2.48 (zone MA25 / near support).

  • Stop-loss: 2.28 (Clear SL, below swing low 2.349 to avoid whipsaw).

  • TP1 / TP2: TP1 = 2.78 (local high area / take profit), TP2 = 3.10 (extended target if momentum + volume continues).

  • Exit triggers: significant unlock/vesting appears, evidence of heavy inflows to CEX or dev/roadmap news being delayed — exit early when there is evidence of large distribution or inflows.