Vitalik: Prediction Market Probabilities Are More Accurate Than Media Judgments

According to reports from HashiChain, during recent discussions on prediction markets, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated that in token voting, if someone votes incorrectly, they usually do not face penalties unless they are the reason for the failure, which is a low probability. In prediction markets, however, voting incorrectly can result in losing money, and if the bet amount is large and the vote is wrong, the losses can be severe. He believes that the probabilities provided by prediction markets are generally more accurate than those formed under the influence of professionals or social media. This actually helps me stay calm and understand when not to overestimate things (but also know when truly important events will occur). Previously, it was reported that Vitalik stated if prediction markets offered interest, it would drive an increase in trading volume and lead to a large number of hedging use cases.