Golden Finance reports that Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated during recent discussions about prediction markets that in coin voting, if you vote incorrectly, there is no punishment; the only risk is that you might just happen to push the result towards that tiny edge probability. In prediction markets, if you make a wrong judgment, you will lose money, and if you bet a lot, the losses can be substantial. Personally, I believe that the probabilities given by prediction markets are usually more accurate than the judgments I form under the influence of (professional or social) media atmosphere. They actually help me maintain rationality, preventing me from overestimating the importance of things (but they can also make me aware of their importance when truly significant events occur).