Ethereum is priced at $4,500, with MVRV reaching 2.5 after an 8% drop from its all-time high. Will the fear of missing out lead the next phase, or is a deeper correction looming?
The price of Ethereum [ETH] is hovering around $4,500, sitting between fear of missing out and greed.
On-chain, open interest (OI) dropped by nearly 7% in a single session. In fact, within just three days, traders lost around $10 billion in leverage, representing a traditional deleveraging process for derivatives after a wave of excessive inflation.
At the same time, the market cap of Ethereum to realized value (MVRV) reached 2.10, as the price approached its all-time high of $4,900. Historically, every rise in this metric has represented a local peak for Ethereum, pushing the price down.
Ethereum MVRV
Source: Glassnode
In short, the 10% drop in Ethereum's price on August 25, after opening at $4,800, was not just a coincidence. The peak of Ethereum's maximum value (MVRV) indicates a frantic market, where fears, doubts, and liquidations often dominate before the next accumulation phase.
Look at March 2024: ETH reached $4,091 as Ethereum's MVRV hit 2.35, indicating that investors were sitting on unrealized gains of 2.35x.
At that point, traders saw their profits more than double before the market corrected.
The result? The value of Ethereum dropped by 50% over the next seven weeks, falling below $3,000 before smart money and new hands intervened, buying the dip and sparking a bullish reversal.
Return of FOMO as Ethereum MVRV reaches a key level
Ethereum's fear of loss is what drives the next phase for the cryptocurrency.
In August, Ethereum's MVRV price exceeded 2.10 twice. The first surge was on August 13 at $4,790, and after a week, profit-taking and short-term liquidation led the price to retreat towards $4,000.
Nevertheless, over the next three days, Ethereum recorded its highest level, reaching an all-time high of $4,900. This bullish divergence highlights Ethereum's structural resilience, demonstrating the market's ability to absorb short-term shocks.
Ethereum
Source: TradingView (ETH/USDT)
In this setup, a rise in Ethereum's MVRV above 2.10 on August 22 could fuel a bullish case, marking a significant divergence from previous cycles where FOMO did not cause timely reversals.
Add a layer of $10 billion in liquidation, and this will only widen the situation.
For traders, this setup indicates that despite short-term profit-taking and fear, doubt, and skepticism, ETH has the technical foundation for a sustainable rally, with the potential for FOMO to drive momentum and test new highs.
