Countdown! Powell will explain tonight the September interest rate cut: 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut, is Bessent's hint of a 50 basis point cut just wishful thinking? Cryptocurrency people, don't get liquidated.

In the early hours of the 26th, Trump suddenly dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Cook, effective immediately.

👉 Reason for dismissal

Trump claimed Cook made "false statements" in mortgage applications (reporting primary residence in two locations), questioning her integrity, and dismissed her based on the Constitution and the Federal Reserve Act.

👉 Why Cook?

Cook is not simple: the first Black woman on the Federal Reserve Board, she served as a senior economist on the Economic Advisory Council during the Obama administration, was nominated by Biden in 2022, and was reappointed in 2023, with a term lasting until 2038.

The key conflict is in policy: she leans "hawkish," having warned that Trump's trade policies could suppress productivity, and she forced the Federal Reserve to raise rates to combat inflation—this directly opposes Trump's demand for "aggressive rate cuts," becoming a policy obstacle. Dismissing her is about removing the "opposition" from monetary policy.

👉 The open and covert struggles within the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve's 7-member Board is core, with members belonging to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which can participate in setting interest rates, quantitative easing, and overseeing financial regulation. Cook's votes and views directly influence U.S. monetary policy.

Trump's calculation is clear: he wants to control this 7-member Board. Having nominated loyalists, dismissing Cook allows him to fill the vacancy and make the board more compliant with his rate-cutting agenda (such as cutting rates before the 2024 election). If successful, he could hold 4 out of 7 seats on the board early next year, stabilizing his influence over monetary policy.

👉 Deep logic

The Federal Reserve's "political independence" is the foundation of U.S. financial stability, but Trump's actions this time essentially test the boundaries of "political interference in the central bank": using "legal pretexts + personnel purges" to transform the Federal Reserve from an "independent agency" into a "policy tool of the White House." As a key figure nominated by the Democrats and opposing Trump's policies, Cook naturally became the first target in this game.

Therefore, this issue is not just about Cook's personal fate but also relates to the future independence of the Federal Reserve and even the stability of the global financial order.