ETH's current "poor" trend is actually a typical phase of wash trading + digestion of chips.
A simple analysis:
Background of the pullback:
From 4310 to 4450, this wave is actually driven by sentiment + short-term capital.
However, above 4450, selling pressure has obviously increased, especially with early trapped positions and short-term profit-taking occurring in this range.
Reasons for the sideways movement:
Main funds have not withdrawn, but they also haven't increased their positions → so they choose to hover around 4420 repeatedly, using time to wear down retail investors' patience.
The change in futures open interest is minimal, indicating the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with a lot of capital stuck in this range, unwilling to chase highs or cut losses.
The trading volume is shrinking → prices are not moving, but the volume is decreasing, indicating a state where neither bulls nor bears are in a hurry.
Logical interpretation:
This position is a common "war of attrition" used by main funds:
Not falling, letting you exhaust your short positions;
Not rising, letting you run out of patience with your long positions.
The longer the sideways movement around 4420 lasts, the greater the potential for a one-sided stretch in the future.
Two possible scenarios ahead:
Confirm support by stepping down → If it drops to 4380–4350, washing out the last batch of stop-loss orders, then pulling up, that would be considered true liquidation.
Directly breaking through 4450–4480 → A short-term volume breakout can easily quickly impact 4550–4600.
The current sideways movement is not without direction, but rather brewing for a larger direction.
The main fund wants the retail investors to feel "poor, no hope," so they can wash out the impatient chips.
