US economic data collectively crashes, a big market trend is brewing in the crypto world—either a massive surge or a bloodbath!
1. Durable goods orders plummet -9.4% = a solid sign of economic recession!
US durable goods orders for July plummeted -9.4% (expected only -4%), marking the largest decline since the pandemic! The signal of manufacturing collapse is evident, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates early. Historical case: After the collapse of durable goods data in 2019, BTC surged 200% in three months!
2. Slowing house price growth + soaring retail sales = economic division!
June S&P house price annual rate at 2.79% (exceeding expectations), but the Red Book retail sales annual rate skyrocketed to 5.9%—people are consuming wildly, but houses are not selling! This contradiction indicates that inflation is hard to eliminate, and the probability of interest rate hikes in September is still quietly rising (CME data).
3. Consumer confidence unexpectedly rises = trap or opportunity?
August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 97.2 (expected 96.2), but the Richmond Manufacturing Index plummeted to -20! This is exactly like the “false prosperity” scenario of 2022—at that time, BTC fell from 48,000 to 29,000!
"The more contradictory the data, the more restless the whales!"
Case 1: June FHFA house price monthly rate -0.2%, but BTC rose 12% that month, indicating that funds had already bet on economic deterioration.
Case 2: After the leak of durable goods data on August 22, $120 million worth of short positions on BitMEX were instantly consumed, clearly showing that large players are positioning themselves!
If the Federal Reserve's spokesperson hints at 'pausing interest rate hikes' tonight, BTC could potentially surge past 30,000! Quickly check my exclusive on-chain data—3 major whale addresses are crazily accumulating stablecoins!
I am the Key to the Block, focusing on crypto market analysis and practical strategies, speaking through candlestick charts! Follow me to avoid getting lost, and let's gain insights into market opportunities together! #比特币远古巨鲸持续出清
