'Bull markets often have sharp declines, and bear markets often rise slowly' — BTC is currently stuck around $110,000, neither breaking upward nor crashing down, resembling a 'constipation market', making retail investors anxious!
1. Current market: Both bulls and bears are 'pulling against each other'.
1.
Price stalemate:
On the 1-hour chart, it is fluctuating between $110,102 and $110,413, with an amplitude of only 0.28%, and an increase of 0.19% (up $206, which is not enough to cover transaction fees).
The middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($110,590) acts like a wall, as the price has tried to break through several times but has been pushed back, indicating that major funds are observing while retail investors are 'playing dead'.
2.
Weak trading volume:
Today's trading volume is 209, compared to the 5-day average of 420, which is a direct halving! The market is like 'a weekend vegetable market' — cold and quiet.
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The MACD yellow and white lines (DIF:-593 / DEA:-715) are 'laying flat' below the zero axis, and the bars are shortening (245 → getting smaller), indicating insufficient rebound momentum, with bears still in control.
Personal opinion:
This shrinking fluctuation is either 'the calm before the storm' or 'the beginning of a slow decline'. Referring to early August's trend, BTC hovered around $108,000 for 3 days before suddenly plummeting 5%, so now $108,000 is a short-term lifeline; a break could trigger panic selling!
2. News: Institutions are 'secretly positioning', retail investors are 'trembling'.
1.
Positive factors:
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BlackRock's BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $120 million yesterday (data source: Farside), indicating large institutions are 'quietly bottom fishing'.
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MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor tweeted hinting at 'continuing to add positions', but the market's tepid response indicates a lack of confidence among retail investors.
2.
Negative news risk:
Federal Reserve officials are 'hawkish': Tonight at 22:00, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman will speak, and if he hints at a rate hike in September, BTC may plunge instantly!
Increase in BTC inventory on exchanges (CoinGlass data), indicating that some large holders are 'quietly offloading', posing a risk of a market crash.
On August 20, BTC also hovered around $110,000, and as a result of the Federal Reserve's hawkish meeting minutes, it directly dropped to $105,000. History doesn't simply repeat, but it always rhymes!
3. Strategy: How can retail investors 'survive'?
1.
Short-term players:
Breakthrough $111,000 (solidly on high volume) → can cautiously chase long, target $117,000.
Break below $108,000 (especially on high volume) → quickly cut losses, next support at $105,000.
2.
Long-term holding party:
Ignoring short-term fluctuations, the recommended investment range is $100,000 to $110,000, where institutional costs are also nearby; a drop would be a 'discount promotion'.
Personal speculation:
I currently hold a 50% position, leaving USDT to buy below $108,000. If there is a sudden surge, I'll wait for a breakthrough above $111,000 to add to my position, and I will not be fooled by a 'false breakout'!
'Bull markets are born in despair, rise in hesitation, and die in madness' — which stage are you in now?
Tonight's speech by the Federal Reserve may be the 'turning point trigger'. Follow my Twitter (@BlockchainKey) for real-time analysis of sudden news!
Remember: the more boring the market, the more you should control your hands!
