'Musk tweeted about DOGE again!' I almost spilled my coffee when I saw this news this morning— not because I was excited, but it reminded me of the 'joke coin' frenzy at the end of 2020, where I went from making a lot to getting stuck.
Back then, I didn't understand any technology or ecology? I purely thought 'this coin has a fun name', bought 50,000 coins at $0.004, totaling only $200. People around me laughed at me: 'DOGE is just a meme joke, it doesn't even have a white paper, throwing your money in the water would make a sound.'
As a result, in 2021, when Musk made a move, he first shouted 'DOGE is the people's cryptocurrency' on SNL, and then Tesla accepted DOGE payments. This coin skyrocketed from $0.004 to $0.73! The $200 in my account peaked at $36,500, the numbers on my phone screen made my hands shake—at that time, all I was thinking was 'I'll sell when it hits $1', but I got greedy and panicked when it dropped to $0.6, by the time I wanted to sell, I was already stuck, turning from a 'likely winner' into a retail investor.
Now every time someone asks 'Can DOGE still be trusted?', I first share my own experience— but even after getting stuck, I still believe it has a chance to hit $1. It's not a gamble, but these 4 things prevent me from completely cutting losses.
1. Musk's 'calls' are not just casual remarks, he is really 'taking action'.
Don't think Musk is just tweeting to ride the wave; he holds the 'key' that can make DOGE soar.
Tesla has long stated it would 'accept DOGE for vehicle purchases'. Although currently only piloted in a few stores, once fully opened, DOGE instantly adds 'practical scenarios'—during the pilot last year, DOGE rose 23% in a single day.
The X platform (formerly Twitter) is more crucial: Musk previously hinted at integrating the 'DOGE tipping feature'. Now with 380 million daily active users on X, if users can tip creators directly with DOGE, this traffic could double DOGE's trading volume. When this news was hinted at before, DOGE rose from $0.07 to $0.12.
Not to mention he still holds DOGE—lookonchain data shows that Musk's associated addresses hold over 1 billion DOGE, he has no reason to let the coins he holds keep falling.
2. Grayscale applies for DOGE ETF, 2025 may be a 'key year'
Last year, Grayscale submitted its application for a DOGE spot ETF. At that time, many people thought 'MEME coins are unworthy', but the situation has changed now.
The US SEC's attitude towards crypto ETFs is becoming increasingly lenient. BTC and ETH ETFs have both been approved, and DOGE, as a top 10 cryptocurrency by market cap, has a good chance of being approved as long as it meets compliance standards.
Once the ETF is approved, it means ordinary retail investors no longer need to buy on exchanges. They can increase their positions through stock accounts. Referring to the $10 billion that BTC ETF attracted after approval, the incremental funds that a DOGE ETF can bring will be at least 1/3 of this amount, so it’s not impossible for it to break $1 at that time.
3. Musk's 'American Party' may be DOGE's 'hidden Easter egg'.
Recently, Musk announced plans to establish a 'American Party', and it's highly likely he will participate in related activities next year—many people haven't realized the connection with DOGE.
Every time Musk makes a big move, he uses DOGE to 'heat things up'. For example, during the 2020 election-related topics, DOGE tripled; if next year he really ties DOGE's promotion to the 'American Party', such a topic could make DOGE go mainstream. After all, MEME coins thrive on 'traffic and stories'.
4. The essence of Crypto hasn't changed: The carnival of MEME is never absent.
After getting stuck, I realized a principle: Crypto is not a purely technical market, it is a market of 'story + consensus'.
2021 was DOGE, 2023 is PEPE, 2024 is BONK, every bull market has MEME coins explode, not because of good technology, but because 'everyone believes it can rise'.
The consensus on DOGE is still there: Over 20 million holders globally, the hashtag #DOGEto1USD on Twitter has hundreds of thousands of discussions daily. As long as the consensus is not broken, there is a chance to wait for the next wave of heat.
Lastly, a sincere word from retail investors: Believe, but don't be foolish about it.
I still hold onto the DOGE that I got stuck with back then, but it only accounts for 5% of my position—I'm not betting that it will definitely reach $1, but leaving myself a 'story ticket'.
What we retail investors should remember most: DOGE's rise and fall depends entirely on whether the 'story can continue'. Elon Musk may suddenly stop promoting it, the ETF may not get approved, these are all risks. So never go all in, at most play with 10% of your spare money, enjoy the rise, and let the fall not affect your life.
After all, I've suffered losses from greed and know how dangerous 'going all in on a narrative' can be— you can believe DOGE can hit $1, but don't bet your entire fortune on that 'belief'.
Let's chat in the comments: Have you bought DOGE? Did you make a profit or get stuck? Why did you buy it in the first place? Follow me, I'll teach you how to 'play MEME coins with a small position', so you don't miss out or get too stuck!
