'The market is like a roller coaster; just when you think it's at the top, it charges up again; just when you think it's about to crash, it pulls back hard.' This morning's Ethereum staged such a thrilling drama—at 9 o'clock, it directly dropped to $4310, scaring the bulls out of their wits, and then half an hour later, it rebounded to around $4440. Behind this surge and plunge lies the scheme of the main institutions 'picking up people on the way back', or is it a signal of a short attack? Tonight, the $4500 level will determine whether you feast or suffer losses!
Current situation: Bulls and bears are fighting, institutions are secretly 'picking up chips'.
First, let's look at today's key action: ETH fell to a low of $4310 in the early morning, just touching the 'bottom level of $4300' predicted by Mark Newton from Tom Lee's team, then rebounded. But strangely, the trading volume did not follow the rebound—it's like calling your friends to help lift something, but only you are putting in the effort, indicating that the market is still on the sidelines, and bulls dare not fully commit.
From the technical indicators, the MACD on the 4-hour level shows that the bearish power is dominant, the EMA trend line is also weakening, and the candlestick pattern is showing a 'gradually lowering high and continuously decreasing low' downtrend. Simply put, the short side still holds the upper hand in the short term, but the bulls are fiercely defending around $4300, similar to being pressed on the ground in a fight but refusing to let go.
What’s more intriguing is the institutional movement: The US spot ETH ETF has seen a continuous inflow of funds recently, and major institutions on Wall Street are quietly shifting funds from Bitcoin to ETH! It's like two top students in a class, originally focused on math papers, suddenly one starts frantically doing English exercises—institutions may be playing a 'portfolio adjustment' game, using BTC's decline to scare others and taking the opportunity to absorb ETH at a low price.
Key level: $4500 is the 'life-and-death line'; if it goes up, bulls feast; if it breaks down, bears have their soup.
The most concerning point in the market right now is the $4500 level, the dividing line between bulls and bears. Why is it so important? Because it is not only a psychological barrier but also the 'intersection point' of multiple technical indicators—like the traffic lights at an intersection; if it goes up, it's a smooth road, if it goes down, it's a muddy path.
Resistance above: $4800-$4830 is the first hurdle, followed by $4900, and the 'ultimate target' above is the $5000 mark.
Support below: $4600 is the first line of defense, followed by the $4480-$4500 range (tonight's 'life-and-death line'), and further down is the 'last fortress' at $4285-$4300.
Long-short game: Bullish vs. bearish 'fight', who has more reason?
Bullish factors: Institutions + rate cuts + technical bottom, threefold buff support.
Institutional fund shift: US institutions are withdrawing funds from BTC and frantically buying ETH, indicating they are more optimistic about ETH's long-term value (such as Ethereum 2.0 upgrade and DeFi ecosystem expansion).
Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations: The probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 87%. A rate cut means increased market liquidity, and naturally, more money will flow into the crypto market—just like when it rains, low-lying areas will definitely accumulate water.
Long-term technical structure is healthy: As long as ETH remains within the 'upward channel', the macro trend still looks bullish, and target levels of $5200 and $5500 are not a dream.
Bearish factors: Divergence in volume and price + profit-taking, shorts are 'holding back their big moves'.
Volume-price divergence: ETH price has risen, but the trading volume has not followed, indicating insufficient upward momentum, like a balloon being inflated without a source of air; it will eventually deflate.
1-hour downtrend: The candlestick pattern shows that the bears are gradually 'pressing the price down', and the bulls are becoming weaker with each rebound, like a beach ball being pressed under water, with less and less buoyancy.
Spot fund inflow turns negative: Recently, ETH spot fund inflows have turned slightly negative, indicating that some investors are taking profits—it's like running a restaurant; if customers finish their meal and leave, new customers can't come in, naturally leading to a quiet business.
Operational strategy: The aggressive side 'licks blood off the knife's edge', while the conservative side 'waits for the wind to come'.
Aggressive strategy (suitable for short-term experts):
Currently, you can short with a light position near $4440, targeting $4300, with a stop-loss set at $4510 (to prevent the main force from suddenly pulling the price up). This strategy is like 'walking a tightrope', suitable for traders who can keep an eye on the market and react quickly; the profit comes from volatility arbitrage, but the risk is also high.
Conservative strategy (suitable for most investors):
Patiently wait for the price to rebound to around $4500 and observe whether it can stabilize on the 1-hour line. If it effectively breaks through and stabilizes, you can go long, targeting $4800-$5000; if it encounters resistance and falls back, then enter a short position, targeting $4300-$4200. Remember: never go all in, set a stop-loss; the market will not be kind to you.
Market outlook: $4300 is the 'dividing line'; if it holds, it's $5000+; if it doesn't, it's back to $3000+.
In the short term, ETH will experience significant volatility. If it can hold the $4300-$4350 support zone, the bulls may launch a counterattack, pushing towards $5100 or even $5400-$5450. However, if the $4500 resistance cannot be broken, it may drop to $3800—just like climbing stairs; if you can't go up, you'll have to roll down a few steps.
However, in the medium to long term, the foundation for ETH's rise remains solid: institutional funds continue to flow in, ETH ETF brings in new capital, and the Cancun upgrade enhances network performance (such as reducing Gas fees); these are all fuels for a 'slow bull' market. The current volatility seems more like the main force is 'washing the盘'—shaking out the indecisive investors before raising the price and making them chase higher.
Finally, a heartfelt note: The market is always volatile, but opportunities are only reserved for those who are prepared. In today's 'life-or-death battle' at $4500, will you choose to be a 'spectator' or a 'player'? If you want to make your first pot of gold in the crypto market or avoid common pitfalls, follow me, and I will help you dissect the main institutions' schemes and seize the next wave of wealth! (After all, I see through the 'pick-up on the way back' tricks of the dogs better than anyone.)#特朗普罢免美联储理事库克
