SHIB burning 95% to reach $1? Can scarcity save the market?
The SHIB team plans to burn 90% of tokens by the end of 2025, reducing from 589 trillion to 59 trillion tokens, hoping to raise prices based on "scarcity," inspired by the surge caused by Vitalik's burning of 450 trillion SHIB in 2021. But can this work this time?
The theory is beautiful: Assuming market capitalization remains unchanged, with a 90% reduction in tokens, the price could theoretically increase by nearly 900%. For example, the current price of $0.00001335 could rise to $0.00012. However, in reality, market capitalization won't "automatically retain its value." Without new funds or demand support, sustaining the price is difficult.
Execution is unstable: The burning progress is like a "roller coaster"—in December 2024, the weekly burn volume surged by 95%, only to plummet by 95% again in July 2025. In this kind of fluctuation, "scarcity" may just be an empty promise.
Core issue: No practical use: In 2025, SHIB's price fell by 7%, and investors have shifted towards projects with application in payments, DeFi, and gaming. Although SHIB claims to be working on DeFi, NFTs, and the metaverse, progress is extremely slow, and they haven't delivered any "real products."
The $1 target is unrealistic: If SHIB were to rise to $1, its market cap would need to reach $29.5 trillion, far exceeding the current total scale of the cryptocurrency market, even surpassing the market cap of 15 Bitcoins, which is clearly impossible.
Conclusion: SHIB's hopes of a turnaround through burning face significant challenges. Scarcity might stimulate prices in the short term, but in the long run, it requires "people to use it, people to buy it." If the team cannot create a blockbuster application, the burning could fall into a vicious cycle of "the more they burn, the fewer buyers there are." The burning plan seems more like a "pie in the sky." Whether the market's downturn can be reversed depends on whether the ecosystem can truly take shape.
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