What the market fears most is not bad news, but the "wolf cry" that goes too far - Trump's actions today are likely to make the old guns in the cryptocurrency circle gasp!
News: Trump's "drug price cuts" are hitting the "emotional nerves" of the crypto community.
Today's biggest news isn't about ETH breaking any resistance level, but Trump's latest "stunt"—he's vowing to cut drug prices by 1,400%-1,500% and impose tariffs on them! While this might sound like good news, promising cheaper drugs and greater affordability for ordinary people, a closer look reveals a tinge of implausibility.
Anyone with a discerning eye can see that drug prices impact the global supply chain, pharmaceutical company profits, and the healthcare system. A 1,400% cut? That's tantamount to wiping out pharmaceutical company profits. Would American pharmaceutical companies have to relocate overnight? And let's not even talk about tariffs. If they're imposed, Wall Street will be the first to jump. Today, US pharmaceutical stocks are likely to become a "leek field." With a run on funds, cryptocurrencies, a "high-risk asset," are likely to be treated like a cash machine.
But don't panic. There's a key flaw in this: Trump's sloganeering policies are commonplace year after year, but are they actually implemented? Hardly! Just like his call to "make Bitcoin legal tender," which ultimately came to nothing. Therefore, the short-term emotional impact outweighs the actual damage. Crypto veterans know this: if you cry "wolf" too often, the market will become numb.
Technical analysis: ETH is stuck in the "oscillation box", should we choose a direction today?
Opening the 1-hour candlestick chart, ETH now seems to be trapped in a "shock box":
The Bollinger Bands are tightly closed: the middle track is 4515, the upper track is 4739, and the lower track is 4291. The three lines are twisted into a rope, indicating that the market is "waiting for direction" - neither bulls nor bears dare to act rashly.
The key positions are accurately positioned: the upper pressure of 4680 is like an "iron gate", and the three recent highs have all been smashed down; the lower support of 4295 is a "lifeline", and if it falls below, it may trigger the stop-loss order, but it has not yet reached the danger zone.
RSI is "playing dead": The current RSI11 is 50.61, which is just stuck on the neutral line. It is neither fanatical nor panic-stricken, just like the current market's "tangled face" - waiting for news, waiting for direction, waiting for a "fuse".
Looking at trading volume, it has shrunk significantly in the last 24 hours, indicating that investors are waiting and watching. The market makers are also busy, and the "oscillation zone" drawn by the yellow line is clearly marked: no volume and no direction, it's just hooliganism!
Personal opinion: In the short term, "fake falls" are inevitable, but in the long term, we should focus on "hard goods on the chain".
Today, ETH is likely to be influenced by Trump's rhetoric and move down towards the 4500-4600 support zone, but the probability of it actually falling below 4295 is low. Why?
1. Powell's "dovish" voice is still ringing in our ears. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been disrupted by tariffs, the general direction of "flooding the market" has not changed. As the "leader of cryptocurrencies", ETH has long followed liquidity, and naturally someone will buy the dip if it falls too much.
2. ETH's "on-chain foundation" is strong—how robust is the L2 ecosystem right now? Arbitrum's daily transaction volume has exceeded 3 million, and the Base chain's Dex has surpassed 100 million in daily turnover. ETH 2.0 has been under development for so long, with transaction fees down 90% and miners switching to proof-of-stake (POS) technology. These "real assets" are the hard currency that supports prices.
Is Trump's "drug tariff" stunt a bluff or a real threat? Do you think this wave of negative news is "crying wolf," or is it really coming?
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