Recently, renowned crypto analyst @IamCryptoWolf issued a warning: The upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting may become a turning point for 'positive news hitting the market, selling for profit', sharply increasing market risks. Let’s break down these key points to help clarify your thoughts.

🔍 Who is the Analyst?

@IamCryptoWolf is a seasoned analyst in the cryptocurrency field, active on the Tradingview platform since 2014, and has 111,000 followers on Platform X. He is known for his sharp market insights and accurately predicted the key point for ETH to break through $4,000. The warnings from this senior analyst are not to be taken lightly; the market should pay close attention to his signals.

⚠️ Analysis of Market Risk Points

  1. 'Positive news hitting the market' triggers a wave of selling.
    The market is abuzz with the high probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September (90% chance), which has everyone collectively 'overjoyed'. However, a one-sided consensus usually means that good news has already been fully reflected in the price; once officially released, a massive profit-taking wave may rush out, forming a large-scale sell-off. The current market fluctuations are a living example of this.

  2. Intensified 'internal strife' within the Federal Reserve
    The latest FOMC meeting minutes reveal rare internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate attitudes, with most members concerned that inflation exceeds employment pressures, making the appropriateness of interest rates still a question mark. This 'internal strife' makes the policy outlook increasingly murky, making it harder for the market to predict.

  3. Technical indicators reveal signs of fatigue
    Bitcoin has dropped below the $105,000 mark, and uncertainty over Trump's tariffs has investors nervously taking profits, while Ethereum has also seen a slight decline. This indicates that despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, the market is not a solid block, and bullish momentum is gradually depleting.

  4. Macroeconomic concerns have not dissipated
    The shadow of Trump's tariff policy still lingers; if inflation continues to heat up, the Federal Reserve may have to urgently turn to raising interest rates again. In that case, investors who harbor fantasies about interest rate cuts will face painful consequences.

  5. Optimism may become the most dangerous 'poison'
    Market sentiment is overheated, with investors pinning their hopes on the FOMC minutes and Powell's speech; however, if the 'good news' falls short of expectations, it may trigger an emotional collapse, leading to a scenario of 'collective disappointment'.

Future Market Trend Analysis Comparison

From this comparison chart, it is clear that there is a huge gap between the current optimistic expectations of the market and potential risks, which is exactly the core of @IamCryptoWolf's warning.

It is particularly noteworthy that several participants commented on the vulnerability of the U.S. Treasury market, expressing concerns about the intermediary capabilities of traders, the growing presence of hedge funds, and the vulnerabilities brought about by low market depth. This structural vulnerability means that once market sentiment reverses, a liquidity crisis could rapidly spread throughout the financial system, with the cryptocurrency market, as a high-risk asset, bearing the brunt.

Summary

Comprehensive analysis indicates that @IamCryptoWolf's judgment that the next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will be a 'sell-the-news' moment demonstrates profound market insight. The current market's overly optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts, internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve, the technical weakness in the cryptocurrency market, and macroeconomic uncertainties are all creating conditions for a significant market adjustment.

Investors should be highly alert to the potential massive market impact that the upcoming FOMC meeting may bring. Even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as expected, the market's 'positive news hitting the market' effect could also trigger a large-scale sell-off, and the downside risks facing the cryptocurrency market are sharply increasing.