Doubao Analysis $ETH Part 2
#MUA Resonance
2. Technically Driven (Oscillating Pullback)
- Trigger Conditions: Expectations of a rate cut have not strengthened, trading volume is below $3 billion, and the market is under pressure at a historical high.
- Trend Prediction: Price retraces to $4341 support, MACD red bar narrows, and the daily chart fluctuates in a doji pattern. If volume increases after the pullback, it could signal a "refueling" move.
- Trading Recommendations: Short-term traders can try a light buy position around $4600, while long-term investors can invest in batches between $4300 and $4600.
3. Long-Short Balance (Narrow Range Consolidation)
- Trigger Conditions: Lack of macroeconomic news, trading volume maintained at $3-4 billion, and candlestick fluctuations of less than 2%.
- Trend Prediction: Price fluctuates between $4600 and $4900, MACD flattens, and candlestick patterns are dominated by small bullish and bullish candlesticks. If a "Doji" or "Harabi" candlestick pattern appears, be cautious about the direction of the market.
Trading Recommendation: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, awaiting a breakout signal before entering the market.
IV. Core Strategy: Flexible in the Short Term, Firm in the Long Term
- Short-term traders: Focus on a breakout above the $4,600-4,956 range. Follow the trend after the breakout, and set strict stop-loss orders (e.g., go long if it breaks above $4,956, go short if it falls below $4,600).
- Long-term investors: Invest in batches upon a pullback to the $4,300-4,600 range, capitalizing on the medium- to long-term benefits of a "rate cut cycle + ETH staking demand."
Summary
Over the next three days, ETH's trend will find its direction amidst the balancing act between technical inertia and policy expectations. If Federal Reserve officials further signal easing, the probability of a breakout above previous highs is high; if market sentiment is subdued, the market is likely to experience consolidation and volatility. We recommend closely monitoring the Fed's statements, ETF fund flows, and trading volume, and seizing opportunities for medium- to long-term investment while managing risk.
