Bean Bag Analysis $ETH : Outlook for the Next 3 Days: The Moment of Technical Adjustment and Policy Dividend Game
#MUA Synchronous Resonance
The current ETH price (4652.97 USDT) is at a critical point where the medium to long-term bullish trend remains unchanged. Although it is temporarily under pressure from the 5-day moving average (4653.62) on the daily chart, the 21-day moving average (4341.11) and the 60-day moving average (3586.52) provide strong support, and the MACD indicator's golden cross continues with no disappearance of the red bars, indicating that bullish momentum is still building. In the short term, attention should be paid to the breakthrough direction of the $4600-$4956 range, while in the medium to long term, it anchors on the dual dividends of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ETH staking demand.
1. Fundamentals: Policy Easing Expectations Build a Long-term Foundation
- Federal Reserve Rate Cut is Imminent: After Powell released a "strong dovish signal" at the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's expectation probability for a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose to 87%, and a consensus has formed for two rate cuts this year. This certainty of macro liquidity easing is driving funds to migrate from traditional markets to cryptocurrencies.
- Institutional Layout Continues to Increase: On August 22, Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $341 million in a single day, and the "ancient whale" has recently increased its holdings by over 450,000 ETH and staked them, directly reducing market circulation. This pattern of "supply contraction + demand expansion" provides strong support for medium to long-term prices.
2. Technical Analysis: Short-term Adjustment and Breakthrough Window Coexist
- Key Level Game Intensifies: The current price is fluctuating in the $4600-$4956 range, with resistance at $4956 (historical high) and support at $4341 (21-day moving average) forming a bull-bear dividing line. If the trading volume breaks $5 billion and stabilizes above $4747, it may initiate a main upward wave; conversely, if the volume decreases and falls below $4600, it could trigger a technical correction.
- Risk Warning: Recently, over 160,000 people have faced liquidation due to leverage, indicating that short-term volatility may be amplified by market sentiment, and strict position control is advised.
3. Scenario Simulation and Operational Insights for the Next 3 Days
1. Policy Expectations Dominant (Breakthrough Previous High)
- Trigger Conditions: Federal Reserve officials strengthen rate cut signals, ETF single-day inflow exceeds $100 million, and market sentiment shifts to "greed."
- Price Forecast: Price breaks above $4956, MACD red bars expand, daily line closes with a large bullish candle. If trading volume synchronously increases, the main upward wave is confirmed.
- Operational Suggestions: Go long after the breakout, with a stop loss set below $4900.
