A reason for caution comes from the loss of visibility of HBAR in the market. Since mid-July, its dominance on social media has fallen by almost 90%, from a peak of 2.41% on July 13 to the current 0.93%. This represents a sharp decline in attention and interest.
History shows that this is important. In June, a similar pattern of lows and lows in social dominance aligned with a local price minimum near $0.129, which preceded a strong rally. The current drop could indicate a repeat: either the price of HBAR soon finds a new benchmark, or traders lose even more interest and the price weakens.
Social dominance measures the proportion of the general conversation about cryptocurrencies that a token captures. A decline usually means that traders are talking less about it, which can weaken short-term expectations.
Despite the decrease in attention, derivative traders remain very involved. Open interest has increased from $387 million on August 22 to $421 million on August 24, a 9% increase in just two days.
This combination is a double-edged sword. An increase in open interest often indicates the entry of new capital into the market, which can drive strong movements.
But it also increases the risk of squeezes. If short positions accumulate, a sudden breakout could liquidate them and spike the price of HBAR. On the other hand, if long positions prevail and the price falls below $0.222, the same leverage could magnify losses.
Open interest shows the amount of money invested in futures contracts of a token. When it rises, more traders are betting on price fluctuations, but this can be detrimental if the market fluctuates.
Hedera is trading near the immediate support of $0.239. A drop below $0.222 would be dangerous, as there are no solid support zones until $0.188 and subsequently $0.152.
For now, buyers remain active. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures the inflow or outflow of capital from an asset, has risen from 45 to 47.8, while the price has fallen.
In simple terms, more funds entered even as the price of HBAR fell, a sign that dip buyers intervened. This validates the structure as still bullish in the short term, but barely.
On the positive side, recovering $0.250 and surpassing $0.257 could open the door to $0.276 for HBAR. That level marks the next significant resistance. If the bulls manage to break through, higher highs could reappear, invalidating bearish forecasts.
