Popularity is one thing, but data must be solid. First, look at a set of 'operational metrics' - transaction volume of 4.5 billion USD, annualized revenue of 9 million USD, and a history of zero defaults; this is the statistics from Binance Research in May. To be cautious, label the source and time when writing to avoid 'face-slapping' from subsequent changes.
Several points regarding the secondary market and supply side cannot be ignored:
Circulation/Total: Circulation is 1.733 billion, total is 10 billion, FDV is approximately 246.5 million USD (data snapshot on 8/25 at 14:16, third-party aggregation). This means that the 'growth story' is still constrained by subsequent releases and dilution; valuation must be viewed alongside FDV and actual cash flow.
Unlocking rhythm: On 8/26, there is an unlocking for Team & Advisors; when writing, one should note the 'short-term supply event', while also observing on-chain transfers and net inflows to exchanges to avoid mistaking structural selling pressure for a deterioration in fundamentals.
Transactions and volatility: Taking HUMA/USDT from 8/22–8/23 as an example, the 24h transaction volume was about 12.57 million USD, and the price showed a 'high open - pullback' weak pattern. Such technical changes are often amplified by liquidity events and should not be simply extrapolated to the long term.
On the revenue side, PayFi's cash flow does not rely on 'high interest rates', but on discount/settlement fees. To determine sustainability, I will focus on three lines:
1) Note repayment overdue rate: If it remains low and stable over the long term, it indicates that the risk control model and the quality of partners are sound.
2) Single LP fund duration: After the launch of multipliers/badges, has the duration significantly shifted to the right?
3) Institutional share: As partnerships with Circle ecosystem, regional payment channels, etc., increase, the weight of institutional LPs should rise, while the weight of retail investors decreases.
Another point to clarify is the chain and routing: Huma 2.0 connects the entry to Solana and optimizes the path for LP deposits and withdrawals through Jupiter, which will make the linkage between 'secondary price - pool funds' more sensitive. In the short term, when encountering unlocks/large transfers, the exit waiting time for the LP side is usually shorter than for EVM pools, but it is also more dependent on external routing depth. It is best to add a note in the report saying 'routing depth does not equal real available liquidity', reminding readers to conduct small trials and batch processing before large operations.
Data is not for 'bullish/bearish' sentiments, but to help you break down 'popularity' into 'realizable cash flow + explainable supply and demand'. Unlocking, FDV, duration, overdue rate - with these four together, your writing on HUMA will not be unfounded.
@Huma Finance 🟣 #HumaFinance $HUMA
