“When the macroeconomy sneezes, the crypto market catches a cold!”
This week, significant global events are clustered together. Don't be fooled; although they involve economic data, central bank operations, and tariff adjustments, each one could lead to a major shift in capital within the crypto market!
This week, the market should pay close attention to several key points:
Is the central bank injecting liquidity or withdrawing it?
China's central bank 600 billion MLF operation: If liquidity is injected (easing), it could benefit risk assets, including BTC; if tightened, the market may face short-term pressure.
Comments from Federal Reserve officials: Hawkish (interest rate hike hints) → bearish; dovish (liquidity injection hints) → bullish.
U.S. PCE inflation data
This is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator. If the data exceeds expectations, interest rate hike expectations may rise, and BTC could correct; conversely, the market may rebound.
Example: Last December, PCE was lower than expected, and BTC surged 8% in one day.
India's tariffs take effect
The U.S. has raised tariffs on India to 50%, which may impact global trade sentiment, leading capital to flow towards safe-haven assets (like BTC).
Example: During the U.S.-China trade war in 2018, BTC was once speculated as a “safe-haven asset.”
NVIDIA earnings report
Will the AI boom continue? If the earnings report exceeds expectations, it could drive tech stocks and the crypto market; if it disappoints, market sentiment may be negatively impacted.
Short-term volatility is expected to intensify: This week has dense data releases, and the market will be like a “startled bird,” with BTC potentially testing key support/resistance levels repeatedly.
From a medium to long-term perspective on capital flow: If traditional markets (stock market, bond market) are unstable, capital may flow into the crypto market, especially BTC and ETH.
Retail investor strategy:
Don't be disturbed by short-term noise, focus on the BTC 4-hour trend, and take action only after it breaks through.
Watch the USDT premium; if it suddenly spikes, it indicates that capital is entering to buy the dip.
Click to follow, and learn how to use “macroeconomic indicators” to predict market fluctuations, positioning yourself for the next wave of trends! #比特币远古巨鲸持续出清
