Bitcoin is falling to multi-week lows, and as talk of all-time highs fades, BTC price targets include retesting the $100,000 mark and below.
starts the last week of August far from all-time highs as traders get more nervous.
A massive liquidation of long positions has brought $110,000 back into play, as a new CME gap becomes a hope for the 'bulls'.
Bitcoin whales have come under scrutiny after a massive shift from BTC to ETH.
Analysis shows that smaller holders, unlike whales, remain in accumulation mode.
The latest BTC price dynamics have led to talk that the entire bull market has come to an end.
The Fed's 'preferred' inflation indicator is due to be released again as markets place even bigger bets on interest rate cuts.
BTC price weakness has sparked talk of retesting the $100,000 mark
By the end of August, Bitcoin returned to multi-week lows, and market participants are busy determining new BTC price targets.
TradingView data shows sharp fluctuations in the price of BTC, defining the market after sharp volatility on Sunday.
As a result, the BTC/USD exchange rate rose to $110,700, the lowest level since July 10 and became an alarming signal for those who held long positions for a long time.
According to the CoinGlass monitoring resource, at the time of writing, the volume of liquidations of long positions in cryptocurrencies in 24 hours amounted to $640 million.
Opinions regarding the short-term outlook were divided. Some saw a retest of all-time highs as a bounce point, while others saw a more complex situation.
BTC opened with a large CME gap
'Bitcoin continues to kill leveraged traders near the lows and sharks seem as hungry as ever'
If the price does not hold at the current positions, we will return to the previous range, which will open the way for us to retest the $100,000 mark.
Data from the CoinGlass exchange order book revealed slight support for demand immediately after the first trading session opened on Wall Street this week.
Whale distribution is 'healthy'
Sunday's sudden drop in BTC price has once again drawn attention to Bitcoin whales.
Current levels, still within 10% of all-time highs, have proven attractive to large players looking to profit from long-held coins.
Over the weekend, one company sold a giant tranche of BTC over the past seven years, causing the market to crash by $4,000 in minutes. The market has not yet recovered from this fall.
Identified that the entity is moving from Bitcoin to Ether
'Over the past 5 days, they contributed about 22,769 (US$2.59 billion) for sale on Hyperliquid, then bought 472,920 $ETH (US$2.22 billion) on the spot market and opened a long position for 135,265 $ETH (US$577 million)'
The company's BTC is currently worth approximately US$11.4 billion, with a profit margin of 1675%.
No need for any paper conspiracy theories around BTC. The price stopped because several whales reached their magic limit and are unloading
It's normal - their supply is limited and their sale is necessary for the full monetization of Bitcoin. Huge blocks with huge purchasing power are distributed among the population. This cycle is one of the greatest monetization events in history.
The supply of BTC is concentrated around large whales who peaked their reserves in 2011 (orange and dark orange). They bought BTC for $10 or less. To absorb each BTC they sell, more than $110,000 of new capital is required.
whale distribution was evident throughout the last phase of population growth.
Data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode confirmed that as of Sunday, there were 2,000 addresses with balances of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, matching all but the largest 'mega' whales. This is a new August high.
Smaller Bitcoin holders continue to accumulate
Looking at other wallet groups, blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant sees reasons for 'bulls' to remain hopeful of recovery.
On Monday, the company warned that distribution among Bitcoin investors had not yet reached its full extent.
'Having peaked at 124k, Bitcoin has entered a pullback phase,' BorisD summarized in one of his Quicktake blog posts, predicting that the pullback could 'continue for some time'.
Unlike whales, smaller holder groups have maintained an overall 'accumulation' setup. In particular, wallets with balances up to 10 BTC continue to increase risks.
In contrast, those with prices ranging from 10 to 100 BTC are exhibiting distributive behavior, switching to massive profit-taking when the price reached $118,000.
According to BorisD, at a price of 100 to 1000 BTC, the impact on the market becomes significant.
'Although they are generally in accumulation mode, starting from 105k, they show a balance between accumulation and distribution, reflecting indecision'
Due to the relative size of the wallets involved, CryptoQuant described the distribution as 'dominant' at the present time.
'Distribution is still the dominant trend, but its intensity is weakening as Bitcoin retraces'
The 105k level stands out as the strongest zone. A drop to this zone will create significant stress in the market and could trigger widespread fears.
Is the bull market already 'over'?
Some market participants had no reason to expect a full return of the Bitcoin bull market.
Those who already held conservative views on future price dynamics have strengthened their forecasts as the BTC/USD pair fell to its lowest level since the beginning of July.
a decrease in trading volume and a weakening of the relative strength index (RSI) data are noted, confirming the thesis that Bitcoin has exhausted itself. As the price reached new highs, the RSI formed lower highs, which is a classic bearish divergence pattern.
The battle for inflation in the US is lurking in the background
The Federal Reserve's 'preferred' inflation indicator is due to be released at a critical time for economic policy.
The July Consumer Price Index (PCE), due out Friday, will be key for both Fed officials and markets awaiting confirmation of a rate cut next month.
Last week, at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell unexpectedly sharply changed his previously aggressive stance. Risky assets immediately jumped on the back of growing hopes for a rate cut.
Since then, sentiment has cooled, as there will be a lot of inflation data released before the rate decision in mid-September. All of this can greatly affect the growth of BTC and the crypto market. We have to wait for these events.......
Many agree on one thing, that before future growth, BTC must fall and after that we will see growth. A bullish scenario awaits us ahead