Current Technical Analysis:

1. Price Operating Range:

Current price is $111582.48, between the lower Bollinger Band at $111247.21 and the middle band at $114429.97

Short-term presenting a range oscillation pattern (110991.28-111820.53)

Significantly below the BBI bullish-bearish dividing line at $113189.65, indicating bears are temporarily dominant

2. Key Price Level Reminder:

Resistance above: 113189.65 (BBI), 114429.97 (Bollinger middle band), 117612.73 (Bollinger upper band)

Support below: 111247.21 (Bollinger lower band), 110991.28 (intraday low)

3. Technical Indicator Interpretation:

Bollinger Bands continuously narrowing (bandwidth 6355.52), indicating a directional choice is imminent

MACD indicator running below the zero axis (DIF -642.18, DEA -282.08)

Recent volatility is only 0.74%, indicating strong market wait-and-see sentiment

Today's Trend Forecast:

Scenario 1: Upward Breakout (Probability 35%)

Trigger Condition: Breakthrough 113189 (BBI) and stabilize

Target price: 114429 (Bollinger middle band), looking to 117612 after a breakout

Key Signal: MACD golden cross with increased trading volume

Scenario 2: Continuation of Decline (Probability 45%)

Trigger Condition: Break below 110991 (intraday low)

Target support: 109500 (previous low), extreme case looking at 107000

Risk Warning: If the MACD histogram continues to expand, downward momentum will increase

Scenario 3: Range Oscillation (Probability 20%)

Volatility range: 110991-113189

Operational Strategy: Sell high and buy low, with strict stop-loss

Trading Suggestions:

1. Bullish Strategy:

Conservative: Wait for a breakout above 113189 and confirm a pullback entry

Aggressive: Light position to try to go long at current price, stop-loss at 110900

2 Bearish Strategy:

Set up short positions around 113000 on a rebound

Breaking below 110991 can follow the trend to short

3. Risk Control Points:

Control single trade risk within 1.5%

Pay attention to the US stock market opening at 10 AM Eastern Time

Beware of sudden openings in Bollinger Bands leading to one-sided trends

Special Reminder:

The current market is at a critical turning point, suggesting investors:

1. Focus on the breakout direction of the range between 110991-113189

2. Keep position control within 30%, retain sufficient ammunition

3. Set trailing stop-loss to protect existing profits