Most people in the crypto world lose money, not because they can't read charts, but because they are too clever, always trying to 'guess the bottom and touch the top'.
Over the past few years, I've managed to live steadily with a set of simple methods: not relying on feelings, just mechanically executing four steps, and newcomers can simply copy it to improve their winning rate.
First step: Only recognize the golden cross on the daily MACD above the 0 axis.
After analyzing mainstream coins for 3 years, this signal has a winning rate of 68%.
When ETH gave this signal in April 2024, I immediately entered the market, and it rose 40% in three weeks.
But never touch the golden cross below the 0 axis. I tried it once two years ago and was trapped for two months; the lesson was deeply etched.
Second step: The 20-day moving average is a matter of life and death.
If the price breaks above it, cautiously test with a small position; once it falls below, no matter how many tears are shed, clear the position.
When SOL dropped from 120 to 110 last year, I gritted my teeth and cut my losses, and three days later, it plummeted to 90. I was fortunate to get out quickly.
Third step: Positioning according to the rules.
Only when there is a volume breakout (for example, BTC breaking through $60,000 with volume) do I dare to go in with more than half a position.
Usually, the position does not exceed 50%.
The profit-taking is even more rigid: take out one-third after a 40% gain, take out another one-third after an 80% gain, and set a trailing stop-loss for the remaining amount.
When trading ADA, I relied on this method to grow from 5,000 USDT to 12,000 USDT.
Fourth step: Stop-loss like a reflex.
Immediately cut if it breaks the moving average, don’t think ‘I’ll wait a bit longer.’
ETC dropped from $15 to $8 that year because I hesitated and lost half of my position.
I later understood that liquidation is always a result of waiting.
Choose the right signals, recognize the moving averages, control your positions, and cut losses decisively.
The biggest profits never come from who is the smartest, but from who can execute simple rules to the letter.
The newcomers I mentor rely on this 'foolish method' to grow from 5,000 USDT to 130,000 USDT in half a year.
Don’t think about shortcuts; this is the hardest shortcut.