Author: Crypto Emergency

Transaction fees on the Bitcoin network have dropped to their lowest levels in the past 14 years, amid heightened expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This event raises questions about the current resilience of the cryptocurrency market.

According to Glassnode data, the 14-day moving average of daily transaction fees on the Bitcoin network has fallen to 3.5 BTC — the lowest value since the end of 2011.

The market reacts to the Fed's signal

A key driver of the recent market strengthening was the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. He noted:

"The shift in the balance of risks may require an adjustment to our policy."

These words were perceived as a signal for a possible easing of monetary policy, which traditionally supports demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Social sentiment on the verge of overheating

Analysts at Santiment recorded a sharp increase in social media mentions of key terms — 'Fed', 'rate', 'cut'. This surge has been the highest in the last 11 months and may indicate excessive euphoria among investors.

Historically, such peaks in public sentiment often coincide with local price maxima, which makes the current situation potentially vulnerable to correction.

Increase in exchange balances — a troubling signal

Since the beginning of June, the volume of BTC on centralized exchanges has increased by 70,000 coins, breaking the previous trend of withdrawing funds to cold storage. This may indicate that investors are preparing to lock in profits or anticipate price declines.

Historically, increases in exchange reserves have preceded intensified selling pressure, especially during periods of market uncertainty.

The network shows signs of slowing down

Current Bitcoin network metrics indicate a decrease in activity: the number of daily active addresses and transaction volumes are declining compared to recent peaks. The long-term MVRV ratio is 18.5% — a zone that analysts consider moderately risky for new investments.