【Zandi: The probability of a recession in the United States in the next year is 49%】 According to Golden Finance, Moody's chief economist Zandi continues to issue warnings that the risks of an economic downturn in the United States are increasing. States that account for nearly one-third of U.S. GDP have already fallen into recession or are highly likely to fall into recession, another one-third of states are experiencing stagnant economies, and the remaining one-third are still expanding. According to Moody's machine learning model, the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession in the next 12 months is 49%. Although tax cuts and defense spending may boost the economy next year, Zandi stated that the current basic expectation is to 'barely avoid a recession.' He pointed out that the end of this year and the beginning of next year will be the most vulnerable period for the economy, during which the inflation effects brought by high tariffs and tightened immigration policies will peak, severely compressing real household income and consumer spending. Zandi also mentioned that, given the recent employment data has been generally revised downwards, he does not rule out the possibility that subsequent data may show that the economy has begun to shrink.
