BTC Midday Observation

On August 25th afternoon, let's all turn our phones to silent and sit down to chat about the latest developments in BTC.

First, let's talk about the price. Early in the morning, Bitcoin surged to around 117k, and my social media was flooded with screenshots saying 'Hitting 100k is not a dream'; but when I woke up, it had dropped to a low of 110.6k, which is like going from a limit up to a limit down. For those with weak hearts, it was a shock. Now it is fluctuating between 112k and 114.5k, resembling you after work, not knowing where to go for barbecue—wandering back and forth, without any direction.

On the technical front, the 100 moving average on the 1-hour chart is like a high-voltage line, making it hard for people to lift their heads. The RSI is stuck around 40, lacking the strength to dive or the courage to soar. The 4-hour MACD green bars have shortened a bit, but unfortunately, the daily chart is still in a death cross, and bears are still shouting in our ears: Don’t act impulsively!

On-chain data is even more interesting. Today, the 'whales' seemed to have coordinated, suddenly dumping 24,000 BTC all at once. Imagine this: the party atmosphere was at its peak, and suddenly the DJ switched the song to 'The Moon Reflected on the Second Spring,' and the whole place went silent. Retail investors followed suit, leading to a catastrophic long-short ratio, and the liquidation amounts skyrocketed.

Can it be salvaged? It all depends on tonight's GDP and PCE data from the U.S. If the data is poor, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September will rise, and Bitcoin might immediately 'turn over like a dead fish'; if the data is strong, bears will continue to feast, and we might have to go pick up the pieces near 108k.

Operation Guide

Look for a bounce near 112700-113200, with support around 111700 and then at 110600.

Defend at 113500. Before attempting to enter, look for a stable hold above 114000. #BTC☀