《How will the ETH perpetual contract trend in the next 3 hours? Giving you a super clear directional prediction～》#MUA
Family! Want to catch the rhythm in the ETH perpetual contract? Let's break down the key trends for the next 3 hours clearly, with technical and macro dual dimensions giving you trading confidence～
Technical aspect: Short-term bearish 'firepower' is stronger
Current price 4707, falling below MA5 (4745) and the 21-day moving average (4768), short-term moving averages act like a 'small barrier' suppressing the price; moreover, after a previous surge to 4957, it quickly fell back, creating a 'high pullback' pattern that makes the resistance above very clear～ The support below looks first at 4685, and further down there is the 60-day moving average (4534) providing a bottom～
Looking at the MACD indicator: the red bars continue to expand, and DIFF has also fallen below DEA, indicating that 'the bears are gaining strength', with short-term bearish momentum being more dominant～
Macro + industry: These messages are influencing the trend rhythm
- US inflation hasn't completely 'cooled down', July CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year (higher than before), and core CPI is at 4.7%. Although the probability of a Fed rate hike in September is low, inflation pressure may still suppress risk assets like ETH; if market sentiment weakens after the US stock market opens in the next 3 hours, ETH may face further 'pressure'～
- The Ethereum spot ETF is a positive factor, but recently we haven't seen any new catalysts with 'large funds rushing in'; previous positive factors have basically been digested; there are also no sudden regulatory changes or major technical upgrades (for example, the Cancun upgrade has already been implemented), lacking strong driving factors for a trend in the short term～
In the next 3 hours, three scenarios will help you anchor your direction
Breaking down the possibilities clearly, making trading more predictable～
✅ Bearish correction (probability about 60%)
Price is likely to continue downward, first testing the support at 4685; if it can't hold, it may challenge the 60-day moving average (4534)～ If we see increasing trading volume and MACD green bars extending further, that would be the rhythm～
✅ Volatility consolidation (probability about 30%)
Price will 'swing back and forth' in the 4700-4750 range, with MA5 and price repeatedly entangled, as if 'waiting for a new signal'～ At this time, trading volume decreases and MACD green bars narrow, indicating that bulls and bears are temporarily 'tied'
✅ Oversold rebound (probability about 10%)
If market sentiment unexpectedly warms up after the US stock market opens, or if there are rumors of 'large funds entering' for the ETH ETF, the price might rebound to the vicinity of the 21-day moving average (4768), but it must first break through MA5 (4745)～
