1. Summary

$ONT just strongly bounced from ~$0.126 to a peak of ~$0.206 then pulled back to ~$0.194; 1H RSI overbought (~84) warns of short-term pullback/flush but the short MA structure is turning up — short-term bias is bullish but high risk without confirming volume. • Catalyst: Ontology expanding EVM / roadmap + campaign/AMA — may attract liquidity but also trigger distribution.

2. Analysis

Price surged with high volume; MA7 > MA25 > MA99 on 1H, RSI(6) ~84 → short-term overbought, likely to pullback test support. Fundamentally, ONT in 2025 has a roadmap (EVM support, staking changes) and campaign/AMA — this news creates a bullish narrative but staking/migration changes may temporarily increase selling pressure. Current sentiment is FOMO + short-covering after the pump; watch whale/CEX flows as meme/alt pumps can easily be dumped.

3. Strategy

Entry:

  • Scenario A (Breakout — safe): probe/limit when 4H close > $0.215–$0.22 with clear 4H volume (≥ ~40% MA20 on 4H).

  • Scenario B (Pullback — realistic/scale-in): probe buy $0.155–$0.180 if a 1H wick rejection + reversal candle appears; split orders.

Stop-loss: $0.125 (below the previous swing low ~$0.126 — avoid false-stop but limit risk).

Take-profit:

TP1: $0.200–$0.215 (scale-out/lock profits near the peak just tested).

TP2: $0.245–$0.285 (expansion target if momentum & whale/institutional flows continue). If volume is weak, lower TP2 to ~$0.235 for a more realistic target.

Exit triggers (early exit): sudden large amounts of tokens moving into CEX (whale to CEX), roadmap/staking news causing concerns (e.g., staking migration/withdrawals), or collapsing volume with a sharp drop in RSI → exit immediately. Use limit/probe orders to reduce slippage.