Recently, the altcoin season index dropped from 50 to 46, indicating that the number of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over the past 90 days has fallen below half, and the market's general expectation for a rise in altcoins has met with cold water. Typically, after a significant rise in Bitcoin or Ethereum, funds gradually flow into mid-to-low market cap altcoins, driving an overall market explosion. However, this time, after Ethereum broke its historical high, this wealth effect did not occur as expected, with funds remaining more concentrated in top assets.
The decline in the altcoin season index clearly reflects a change in the logic of market capital flow. Firstly, institutional funds show a stronger preference for certainty assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum remaining the top choices; secondly, the market lacks fresh narrative momentum, with strong stories like the 2017 ICOs, 2020 DeFi, or 2021 NFTs yet to form; finally, investors are gradually becoming more rational, and the era of blindly following investment trends is fading.
In the current situation, investors need to adjust their mindset, lower their blind expectations for the 'altcoin season', and instead focus on projects that truly have long-term value. Closely observe the trend of capital flow between various sectors, avoiding simple linear extrapolation of historical market conditions, and capturing structural opportunities through refined research.
