1. Summary

$SUI Current transaction ~$3.72 after a strong bounce; the 1H structure shows short MA above long MA and RSI ~61 — short-term bias leans bullish but requires volume for confirmation of continuation. • Catalysts: DEX/DeFi volume surges and ETF/custody movements catch attention.

2. Analysis

SUI bounced from around ~$3.30 up above $3.7 with MA7/MA25 above MA99 and RSI ~61 — the technicals lean positive on the 1H frame; however, sustainable breakout requires continued 4H/1D volume. Fundamentally, the network reports increased DEX volume & TVL (strong Q2 session), and there is a wave of institutional interest (ETF/custody chatter) — this provides liquidity but also carries the risk of quick profit-taking when whales act.

3. Strategy

Entry:

  • Scenario A (Confirmed breakout — safe): probe/limit when 4H close > $3.80–$3.86 with clear 4H volume (≥ ~40% MA20 on 4H).

  • Scenario B (Safe pullback): buy probe $3.50–$3.60 if wick rejection + 1H/4H reversal candle appears (small scale-in).

Stop-loss (mandatory): $3.30 (below the swing support zone; set SL wide enough to avoid false-stops but limit risk).

Take-profit: TP1 = $3.88–$3.98 (close part near short-term resistance); TP2 = $4.30–$4.70 (expansion target if volume & institutional flows continue). If lacking volume/confirmation, lower TP2 to ~$4.00 for a more realistic target.

Exit triggers (early exit): sudden large token transfers to CEX (whale to CEX), news of ETF/custody being withdrawn/rejected, or collapsing volume with RSI getting too hot → exit immediately. Use limit/probe orders to reduce slippage.