The Last Chance Before Institutions Frenzy! V God Names the Hedging Holy Grail

V God’s remark unveils the Achilles' heel of the prediction market: the interest-free design is causing a "hemorrhaging loss" in hedging demand.

Vitalik's statement directly points to the structural flaws of prediction markets—traditional finance allows futures contracts to achieve long-short balance through funding rate mechanisms, while current mainstream prediction markets (like Polymarket) remain stuck in the "zero-sum game" phase.

When users stake USD stablecoins to participate in predictions, they are actually bearing huge opportunity costs.

Based on the current 4% risk-free return on U.S. Treasuries, each $100,000 position incurs an implicit loss of $4,000 per year, which deters institutional investors and hedging demand.

Traditional markets already have mature paradigms—CME Bitcoin Futures share funding rate profits between long and short parties through interest rate premium mechanisms.

In contrast, the prediction market track can only break through the zero-sum game with models like Azuro’s LP staking dividends and Synthetix’s staking rewards, potentially unlocking trillion-dollar hedging demand.

It is worth noting that Polymarket has recently begun testing the WARP interest rate market, which may signal an awakening in the industry.

When the annualized returns of prediction markets exceed the 4% critical point, will it ignite a new wave of DeFi innovation? #杰克逊霍尔会议

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