1. Summary
$TREE has been pushed down to the ~$0.298 area after the selling post-listing/airdrop; extremely low RSI (~19) indicates an oversold condition, but the short-term MA structure is still below the long-term MA → short-term bias leans bearish unless volume reverses clearly. • Catalyst: listing + HODLer airdrop increases liquidity; risk: distribution/seed sales & selling pressure.
2. Analysis
The price has dropped from the ~0.382 area to ~0.2955 and is trying to hold around ~0.30; MA7 < MA25 < MA99, RSI(6) ~19 — technically oversold but lacking confirmation volume to reverse the trend. Essentially, TREE has just undergone listing and a HODLer airdrop (increasing liquidity but also increasing the circulating token amount); tokenomics indicate significant vesting/airdrops — factors that could create selling pressure. The current sentiment is wary of distribution/airdrop sell, but short-covering may create short-term technical bounces.
3. Strategy
Entry:
Scenario A (Conservative — Confirmed breakout): probe when 4H close > $0.32–$0.34 with a noticeable increase in 4H volume (>40% MA20 on 4H).
Scenario B (Aggressive — Bounce play): small probe $0.285–$0.305 if wick rejection + 1H reversal candle appears (scale-in in multiple parts).
Stop-loss: $0.268 (below the low/structure area; set SL wide enough to avoid false stops but limit risk).
Take-profit: TP1 = $0.345–$0.365 (near resistance / mid-term MA area); TP2 = $0.38–$0.40 (expansion target if momentum & volume continue). If volume is weak or there is no 4H confirmation, lower TP2 to ~$0.355 to be more realistic.
Exit triggers: large token amount mutation moving to CEX, notification of additional distributions/vestings, or collapse volume + strong RSI → exit immediately. Use limit/probe orders to control slippage.
