1. Summary
$TREE slipped to ~0.298 after post-listing/airdrop selling; RSI deeply oversold (~19) but short MAs remain below long MAs — short-term bias is bearish unless volume confirms reversal. • Short-term catalyst: listing and Binance HODLer airdrop; risk: distribution and unlocked supply.
2. Combined Analysis
Technically, price dropped from ~0.382 to ~0.2955 and sits below MA7/MA25/MA99 with RSI ~19 — oversold but lacking volume confirmation. Fundamentally, the token experienced a major listing and structured airdrop that raised liquidity but also increased circulating movements; tokenomics show significant airdrop/vesting allocations. Sentiment is cautious: distribution risk weighs on FOMO.
3. Strategy
Entry:
Breakout (conservative): probe on 4H close > $0.32–$0.34 with clear 4H volume confirmation (>40% MA20).
Bounce (aggressive): small probes $0.285–$0.305 on wick rejection + 1H reversal candle (scale-in).
Stop-loss: $0.268 (below recent structure).
TP1 / TP2: TP1 = $0.345–$0.365; TP2 = $0.38–$0.40 (reduce TP2 to ~ $0.355 if volume weak).
Exit triggers: large airdrop/distribution activity, heavy transfers to exchanges, or volume collapse with RSI spike → exit. Use limit/probe to minimize slippage.
