Context and Dynamics of the Movement | $BTC
1. The Initial Rally After Jackson Hole
Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that there could be a rate cut in September, generating strong optimism. Bitcoin rose from approximately 112,000 USD to over 116,000 USD, in some cases reaching 124,000 USD.
The crypto market, including Ethereum, XRP, and other altcoins, also expressed this wave of optimism with double-digit gains.
2. Profit Erasure from the Rally
However, those bullish impulses began to fade quickly for several reasons:
Natural technical correction after such a strong advance.
Profit-taking before Jackson Hole, anticipating a more cautious message from Powell.
As a result, Bitcoin retraced almost 8% during August, falling to levels close to 113,000 USD after having touched highs of 124,000 USD.
3. Factors That Damaged the Rally
The anticipation of the speech created mixed expectations: many traders took profit as a precaution.
Data such as stronger-than-expected wholesale inflation generated reverse pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
On-chain indicators such as the percentage of supplies in profit have fallen from 100% after the ATH to levels between 92–96%, indicating that fewer holders are in profit and may be distrustful.
Recommended Follow-Up?
Monitor upcoming economic data and Fed statements: crucial to determine whether the momentum resumes or dissipates.
Monitor technical indicators such as support at 110–112k and resistance at 116–120k.
Be attentive to market sentiment, especially flows into ETFs, reactions from large investors, and trends in altcoins.
