#Ethereum has been on the rise this August, with an increase of nearly 25% since the beginning of the month. However, if history serves as a reference, September might not be so favorable.
📊 Since 2016, whenever Ethereum has risen in August, it has historically suffered a pullback in September. While this pattern does not guarantee the same outcome, traders are closely watching to see if history repeats itself.
At the time of writing this article, ETH is trading around $4,759, nearly $952 more than its price on August 1, which was $3,807. It even reached new highs above $4,867 after moderate statements from the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested the possibility of a rate cut next month, which many consider a bullish signal for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
⚠️ Historical warning
Data shows Ethereum has only recorded gains in August on three occasions since 2016, and each of those was followed by a decline in September. However, in years like 2016 and 2020, ETH rebounded strongly in the last three months of the year, a sign that, even if September turns negative, the long-term outlook could remain bullish.
💡 Why this year could be different
Unlike previous cycles, the current rally is supported by significant catalysts that did not exist before. Billions have been flowing into recently approved Ether ETFs, and corporate treasuries are increasingly adding ETH to their holdings. On August 11, the total value of Ether held by companies with cryptocurrency treasuries exceeded $13 billion, while the price surged above $4300.
Additionally, large institutional purchases have strengthened confidence, and some companies have added tens of millions of dollars in investments to their balances in recent weeks.
Ethereum ETFs are stealing the spotlight
August has been a historic month for spot Ether ETFs, with net inflows recorded of nearly $2.8 billion. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs experienced notable outflows during the same period, indicating a shift in investor interest away from Bitcoin dominance towards greater exposure to cryptocurrencies. In the past 30 days, Bitcoin's overall market share has fallen by nearly 6%, showing that capital is rotating towards other assets, especially Ethereum.
🔥 What's next for ETH?
September is often considered a 'danger month' for Ethereum based on seasonal trends. However, with increasing institutional adoption, Treasury bond purchases reaching new highs, and spot ETFs attracting billions, this cycle could break the old pattern.
Regardless of whether ETH drops in September or not, the long-term momentum is building, and many traders believe that the path to $5000 and beyond is closer than ever.
