Is the bull market over?
How much does $BTC need to rise to be considered a bull market?
How much does $ETH need to rise to be considered a bull market?
How much does $SOL need to rise to be considered a bull market?
From what price point and period should we start judging?
Using data from last August to compare with this August:
In August 2024, BTC reached a maximum of 68386
In August 2025, BTC has so far reached a maximum of 124474
Year-on-year growth of 82%
In August 2024, ETH reached a maximum of 3326
In August 2025, ETH has so far reached a maximum of 4887
Year-on-year growth of 36.9%
In August 2024, SOL reached a maximum of 182.68
In August 2025, SOL has so far reached a maximum of 212
Year-on-year growth of 16%
From the data I calculated above, there is no doubt that BTC is in a bull market. I have never participated in a previous bull market; I entered the market last year as a novice, and I am not sure if the growth of ETH and SOL aligns with the bull market trend? This calculation method is just my personal spontaneous idea, so please point out if there is anything wrong; be gentle.
If this year-on-year growth rate does not count as a bull market, I personally subjectively believe that interest rate cuts will lead to another round of catch-up.
During the time of the understanding king, it is impossible to admit an economic recession, which is also why the last non-farm payroll data was a surprise and the understanding king flew into a rage, replacing the head of the Labor Statistics Bureau.
The new director nominated by the understanding king, Anthony, has not yet taken office, pending confirmation by the senators.
However, the Republican voting committee has many members, so it will basically be approved; it is just a matter of time.
Trump cannot directly interfere with non-farm payroll data, but he can indirectly lower the credibility of non-farm data through personnel appointments and public questioning.
Just like Trump publicly criticizing Powell each time, reducing Powell's influence, and attempting to manipulate the Federal Reserve's voting committee through personnel appointments.
According to
1. Powell's dovish remarks at Jackson Hole
2. The significant downward revision of the July non-farm payroll data, with only a slight increase in the unemployment rate.
3. Trump's political influence
In September, I believe there is a 90% chance of a pre-emptive interest rate cut, starting a new round of catch-up market.
It is important to note the following data to be published:
Core PCE data for July will be released on August 29
Non-farm payroll data for August will be released on September 5
As long as these two data points are not particularly bad, it is 100% certain that there will be a pre-emptive interest rate cut.
