Ether surged in August – Will September become a “break point” or an opportunity?
August witnessed a remarkable surge of Ether (⟨c-6⟩). The second-largest cryptocurrency in the world rose over 25%, surpassing the 4,800 dollar mark after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave dovish signals regarding monetary policy. Many investors expect the Fed to start a rate-cutting cycle next month – a crucial impetus for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
However, for those who have been following Ether for many years, the biggest question is not how much ETH will rise, but whether this September will repeat the historical pattern.
September history: “The recurring trap”
Since 2016, whenever Ether has a strong growth month in August, the following September becomes a surprising “brake.” Data from CoinGlass shows that ETH usually drops an average of 6.42% in September.
2017: ETH rose nearly 93% in August, then fell over 21% in the following month.
2020: Up 25% in August, then lost 17% in September.
2021: Up 36% in August, then down nearly 13% in September.
But interestingly: in both 2016 and 2020, after a drop in September, Ether surged strongly in the last three months of the year. This suggests that September could merely be a correction in a long-term uptrend.
New factors could change the scenario
The difference this year compared to previous cycles is the spot Ether ETF and the capital flows from treasury companies.
In just August, the Ether ETF recorded a net capital inflow of 2.79 billion dollars, while the Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about 1.2 billion dollars. This signals that Ether is becoming a more preferred choice for many institutions.
On August 11, the amount of ETH held by treasury companies surpassed 13 billion dollars. Notably, BitMine – one of the large organizations – has just added another 45 million dollars in ETH, raising the total value of holdings to 7 billion dollars.
With the increasing involvement of financial institutions, the Ether market today is no longer like the previous “up - down” cycles, which heavily relied on speculative capital flows.
Bitcoin loses its allure – Ether benefits
Another noteworthy development is that Bitcoin's dominance index has dropped to 58.19%, losing nearly 6% in just one month. Capital is leaving BTC to flow into altcoins, with Ether standing out due to its “blue-chip” status in the cryptocurrency world.
Nate Geraci – President of NovaDius Wealth Management – called this a “significant shift,” as ETF flows prioritize Ether over Bitcoin. This could be a sign of a rebalancing in the crypto market, where Ether gradually consolidates its central role.
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