After the successful holding of the 2024 conference, the 2025 Bitcoin Asia Conference is scheduled to take place in Hong Kong on August 28-29. The conference will invite guests such as Eric Trump and Hong Kong Legislative Council member Johnny Ng to discuss topics like the Lightning Network, Ordinals, institutional ETFs, and regulatory issues between China and the U.S.
Hong Kong's New Regulatory Framework: Starting from August 1, Hong Kong will implement strict regulations on stablecoins. The new rules prohibit promoting unapproved stablecoins to retail investors, with violators facing fines of up to HKD 500,000 and six months of imprisonment. Although the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has received about 50 applications, it plans to approve only a few.
Market Status: Short-Term Volatility and Technical Analysis
Bitcoin experienced short-term volatility from $119,000 to $115,000 on July 25. This occurred on the eve of an options expiration worth $11.946 billion, drawing the market's attention.
Technical Indicators:
Options Market: The call-to-put ratio is 0.88, showing slight bullish sentiment, but the market structure has not yet reached an extreme imbalance.
Key Support Level: Emphasizes the importance of $112,000 as a key support level. If the price quickly rebounds after a drop below this level, it indicates a 'shakeout'; if it continues to fall below, it may signal a deeper correction.
IBCA Indicator: This indicator measuring the 'temperature' of the market has touched the 80% 'distribution line' for the third time, indicating that the market is heating up, but there is still distance to the bull market peak.
HODL Ribbons: This indicator recently closed its 'buy signal,' which was activated on June 25 when Bitcoin price was at $98,000. This indicates that miners are no longer under financial pressure to sell their holdings. Historically, the end of this signal usually means that prices will continue to rise over the next few weeks to months.
Investor Mentality: Advises investors not to panic sell and encourages them to focus on fundamental data. Investors should combine multiple indicators (such as HODL Ribbons, ETF inflows, SOPR, and IBCA) to form a comprehensive market judgment.
Dynamics of Institutional Funds and On-Chain Data
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD): This indicator tracking the movement of old bitcoins surged to a decade-high (0.25) in July, indicating that long-term holders are moving their coins, possibly to take profits. However, unlike historical patterns, the price of Bitcoin did not weaken as a result.
The Role of ETFs: Attributes the market resilience to the continued capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs. Since April, these ETFs have attracted a net inflow of $18 billion, with $5.2 billion flowing in just in July, primarily contributed by BlackRock's IBIT. This institutional demand is creating a 'supply shortage' that overshadows the selling pressure that long-term holders might bring.
Halving Cycle Theory: Mentions that the '18-month curse' after the 2024 Bitcoin halving may suggest that this bull market will end in October 2025. However, due to unprecedented institutional participation, this historical pattern may be altered, with prices expected to reach $138,000.
Tron Listed on NASDAQ: Sun Yuchen and Tron successfully landed on NASDAQ through a reverse merger with SRM Entertainment, marking the first time a major crypto project has been listed on a traditional stock exchange. This provides institutional investors with a legitimate channel to access crypto assets. The news has caused TRX prices to rise by 15%, and SRM's stock also increased by 47%.
Various events indicate that historical patterns based on Bitcoin halving cycles may no longer fully apply. Due to the deep involvement of institutions, market behavior may not completely follow past rules, making predictions more complex, but also signaling unprecedented price potential. This is a mindset that sees the introduction of external forces (traditional finance) as changing the fundamental rules of the internal system (crypto market).
