Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has recorded a gain of +25.1%, confirming its position among the best assets. On the stock front, the Nasdaq rises by +11%, the S&P 500 by +9.11%, and the Dow Jones by +7.26%. Among safe-haven assets, gold advances by +28%, while the EUR/USD grows by +13.6%, highlighting the strength of the euro against the dollar. In fact, the dollar index is down by 9.90%.
Bitcoin and gold dominate among financial assets
This trend indicates a capital rotation scenario: Bitcoin and gold are emerging as both safe-haven and speculative assets, recording significant gains (+25.1% and +28%).
American stock indices (Nasdaq +11%, S&P 500 +9.11%, Dow Jones +7.26%) are growing, but with more contained strength compared to crypto and precious metals, indicating a positive but not euphoric stock market.
Finally, the appreciation of the euro (+13.6% against USD) and the decline of the Dollar Index (-9.9%) show the weakness of the dollar, a factor that favors both commodities and dollar-denominated assets.
Bitcoin's downturn and the S&P reaction
If Bitcoin's performance since the beginning of 2025 is significantly higher than that of the stock indices, focusing on the last weeks from the attached chart we can observe how the price has entered a more marked downturn after its ATH at $124,517.
The chart shows how the S&P 500, after Powell's speech, reacted positively, closing the last daily candle with a +1.49% and approaching its historical high of 6,508.75 points.
Magnificent Seven and Big Tech
In 2025, the American market remains driven by the so-called Magnificent Seven, namely Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla. These giants dominate the US stock market and have been the main drivers of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 surge, thanks to their central role in AI, cloud, and semiconductors.
NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta stand out as the best performers, supported by the explosion in demand for artificial intelligence, while Tesla and Apple register significant declines, of over -10.30% and -6.6% respectively since the beginning of 2025. Amazon and Alphabet remain more stable, with moderate but still solid performances on the fundamental side.
The Palantir case and its market weight
Alongside the established big names, mid-cap companies related to AI and digital infrastructure are also emerging. Among these, Palantir (PLTR) stands out, continuously surprising due to the growing adoption of its data analysis and artificial intelligence software, reinforcing its image as a 'bridge' stock between Big Tech and frontier innovation. In 2025, it grows by 110% and in the last 12 months, it has only closed negatively in March of this year.
S&P500 and market capitalization
The capitalization of the Magnificent Seven weighs heavily on the S&P 500. As of August 2025, data shows that:
The combined market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven is around $19,300 billion.
The entire S&P 500 is worth about $53.6 billion
Consequently, the 'Magnificent Seven' represent about 34-35% of the total value of the S&P 500 index, a significantly higher weight than your estimate.
The decline of the dollar
The only asset in negative territory is the dollar, as can be seen from the Dollar Index (DXY), which represents the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%).
The euro carries the most weight; its strengthening tends to push the index down, while its weakening causes it to rise. This mechanism directly reflects the comparison of the dollar with other global currencies.
Correlation between Bitcoin and Dollar Index (DXY)
Historically, Bitcoin has shown an inverse correlation with the DXY: when the index rises, BTC tends to weaken, while a decline in the dollar increases appetite for 'risk on' and supports Bitcoin's role as an alternative store of value. Currently, the trend in 2025 is confirming the historical trend.
