📉 The Fed and Recession: Rate cuts traditionally signal the approach of a recession. Currently, it's an "inflationary recession": GDP is growing, but the population feels a downturn, especially among the wealthy. Expectations of rising unemployment are at levels characteristic of a crisis.
📕 Project 2025: A plan by the Heritage Foundation (900 pages), which includes reducing the government apparatus and social programs, pressure on the Fed, tariffs, and deportations. All of this removes economic stabilizers and increases the risk of stagflation. Experts estimate the probability of a recession in 2025–26 at 50–80%.
🪙 Cryptocurrencies: In a recession, the first reaction is a drop alongside stocks. However, after the launch of stimulus measures (QE, rate cuts), it is cryptocurrencies that may gain the most, as seen in 2020–2021. If Project 2025 is partially blocked, the drivers will be ETF inflows and institutional demand.
🌊 Conclusion: The uncertainty is enormous — rates, policy, geopolitics, "black swans". But the decline in BTC dominance indicates the approach of alt season.
