According to BlockBeats news on August 24, CITIC Securities' research report believes that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting aligns with our previous expectations. We anticipate that the Federal Reserve will consecutively cut rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points. In terms of assets, we believe that the main line of the 'rate cut trade' in the U.S. stock market will be clearly defined again, and the trading logic of 'catching up' will dominate the upcoming U.S. stock market, similar to the rise of interest rate-sensitive Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology during the 'rate cut trade' in July 2024.
The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year remain somewhat distant from our views. We expect that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index still have slight downward space. In terms of non-U.S. equities, Powell's dovish remarks and a weaker dollar are expected to boost global equity market risk appetite. Regarding gold, the expectation of interest rate cuts is supportive of gold prices, but we need to be cautious of potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine. (Jin Shi)
