ETH's current price is pinned at $4812, just breached the 4800 mark, but the market feels like the calm before the storm: daily trading volume of 230,000 sets a new low for January, the BOLL channel has narrowed to a range of 5068-4098 dollars, volatility has dropped below 15% (normal is 25%-35%)—this is not just a fluctuation; it’s a life-and-death struggle between bulls and bears, a shift in trend is imminent.
1. Three danger signals are full, 4800 is 'false prosperity'
Volume is stagnant: 230,000 trading volume hides traps
From July's 800,000 trading volume when breaking 4500, it has now dropped to 230,000 (a decline of over 70%), 'volume-less rise' is just a house of cards. Historical data shows that when ETH breaks key levels with volume below 500,000 (3-month average), the probability of a pullback is 82%—in May 2021, it relied on 280,000 volume to 'fake break 4300', falling 30% in 3 days.
At 9 AM this morning, ETH suddenly surged to $4887.5, but fell back in a minute, the long upper shadow exposed 'bull trap test': the market maker raised the price to offload without any takers, resulting in a sideways market.
BOLL narrowing: price change may exceed 15%
Currently, the BOLL channel is only 970 dollars wide (the narrowest since March this year); Glassnode data shows that when ETH BOLL width is below 1000 dollars, the average price change within 72 hours is 18%. In November 2023, the channel narrowed to 800 dollars, leading to a 22% drop within 48 hours.
The mid-line at 4583 dollars is the lifeline: breaking below looks to 4098 lower boundary (15% drop), breaking above looks to 5068 upper boundary for 5300 (10% rise), but with the current volume, the probability of moving upwards is less than 20%.
MACD divergence: July plunge script is replaying
4-hour chart MACD divergence: yellow and white lines flattening, red bars shortening, while the price slightly rises. On July 15, when ETH hovered around 4600, a similar pattern + volume shrinkage led to a 12% drop (4600→4050), trapping 120,000 long positions. Now, the volume is 40% lower than then, and the drop may be even more severe.
2. News front hidden dangers: Good news has run its course + Fed's hawkish hammer
BlackRock ETF has overdrawn positive sentiment
BlackRock ETH ETF holdings exceed 500,000 units ($2.4 billion), with a daily inflow of $640 million, yet ETH only rose 0.8%—from mid-June, ETH climbed from 4000 to 4800, already priced in the good news. More dangerously, whale addresses (holding over 10,000 units) have net withdrawn 23,000 units ($11 million) in the last 3 days, institutions are offloading in response to good news.
Fed's hawkish stance puts pressure
Yesterday, Bullard stated 'rate cuts in September need caution', with the probability of a rate cut dropping from 89% to 75%; the Nasdaq fell 1.8%, with a correlation of 0.6 to ETH (strong correlation), making funds vulnerable to withdrawal. Powell's speech today at 8 PM, if he mentions 'anti-inflation priority', the fragile market may not withstand the impact (similar remarks in March 2023 caused ETH to drop 15%).
3. Blood and tears warning: July liquidation wave may reappear
On July 15, ETH hovered around 4600 (MACD divergence + volume shrinkage of 380,000 + BOLL narrowing), after the Fed turned hawkish, it plummeted 12%, with liquidations of 87 million in long positions between 4500-4600. Now the volume is even lower, and hawkish expectations are stronger; breaking support may lead to a decline of over 12%, with the 4098 lower boundary not being a joke.
4. Two life-saving strategies: Survive and wait for the bull market
Spot: 4700 is the last line of defense
Don’t add positions to catch the bottom; 4800 is neither low nor high, betting wrong means being trapped;
4700 is the EMA120 daily average + Fibonacci 50% retracement level; breaking below will trigger quantitative selling;
Wait to add positions until it stabilizes above 4850 and volume exceeds 500,000, or watch below 4500 if it falls below 4700.
Futures: Wait for clear signals, don’t engage in short-term trading
Long position (cautious): After 4 PM, if the 15-minute chart shows 'three consecutive greens + volume rise', stabilize above 4850, 5x leverage, target 4920, stop-loss 4800;
Short position (cautious): Break below 4700 with volume (15-minute volume over 300,000), 5x leverage, target 4610, stop-loss 4750;
Avoid opening positions in the 4750-4850 range; in July, someone lost all their capital in 10 out of 12 trades.
Final warning
Set two alerts before 8 PM: ETH falls below 4700 / breaks through 4887, immediately reduce positions if Powell's speech mentions 'persistent inflation' or 'delayed rate cuts'. Spot position ≤50%, futures position ≤10%—the bull market hasn’t arrived yet; preserving principal is essential to seize opportunities.
