【Guojin Macro: Powell's 'Great Retreat' at Jackson Hole May Prove Trump's Political Pressure Finally Paid Off】 Golden Finance reports that Guojin Macro research states that Powell's dovish shift at the Jackson Hole meeting was unexpected, and some remarks contradicted statements made at the July FOMC press conference. In reviewing and forecasting the economy, Powell underwent a 180-degree change in his views on the labor market, becoming extremely concerned about the risks of job losses. This shift in perspective is very similar to the decision not to cut interest rates in July, and it is difficult to explain solely through changes in economic data; it may prove that Trump's political pressure on the Fed has finally yielded results. Although the Fed's expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have remained at two, this clear dovish signal strengthens not only the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September but also the possibility of consecutive rate cuts within the year. We want to remind that the side effects of a relatively loose monetary policy environment and a dovish policy framework should not be ignored; in the future, the U.S. will find it more difficult to control inflation dynamics after significant rate cuts, and a re-accelerating U.S. economy will inevitably face a higher inflation center; this year will be more 'stagnant', and next year will be more 'inflated'.
